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UFC 290 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Bo Nickal vs. Val Woodburn

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All of International Fight Week’s events lead up to Saturday night, where we have a pair of title fights headlining UFC 290. The co-main event features a Flyweight Championship bout between Brandon Moreno (C) and Alexandre Pantoja (No. 2). The nightcap is a Featherweight battle where interim champion Yair Rodriguez looks to knock off the top dog, Alexander Volkanovski.

The whole card is stacked, including the main card opener, a Middleweight tilt between Bo Nickal and Val Woodburn. Let’s break down each fighter’s current form and lock in a best bet!

Best UFC 290 Bets: Bo Nickal vs. Val Woodburn

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Betting Profile: Bo Nickal (4-0-0)

Last Four Fights (WWWW)

The hype is real surrounding Bo Nickal, and rightfully so. The 27-year-old is on a rocketship career path in the fight game after building a phenomenal wrestling resumè throughout his youth and collegiate years at Penn State. As for his professional fighting career, the American-born brawler is a perfect 4-0. All three of his UFC bouts have ended via first-round submission, most recently an arm triangle against Jamie Pickett. 

The short fights have caused his statistics to essentially all be outliers. However, it’s worth noting them to see his tendencies. In terms of striking, Nickal is landing 1.67 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 0.21. He relies heavily on his wrestling, as he’s averaging 12.50 takedowns per 15 minutes and landing at a 57% clip. His takedown defense rate is 0%, but he has never been forced to defend an opposing attempt in three UFC fights.

Betting Profile: Val Woodburn (7-0-0)

Last Five Fights (WWWWW)

Tresean Gore was originally slated to take on Nickal, but he was forced to withdraw due to a torn ligament in his wrist. Enter Val Woodburn: a.k.a “The Animal.” While the oddsmakers see Nickal as a massive favorite, I don’t anticipate Woodburn simply rolling over and taking a beating.

He’s a perfect 7-0-0 in his professional career, and this will be his UFC debut. The 29-year-old was supposed to fight in Dana White’s Contender Series in August, but he’ll get the early bump here due to Gore’s withdrawal. Woodburn enters as the Middleweight champion of Combat Night, and it’s worth mentioning that five of his seven wins are via knockout. 

Bottom Line

The sportsbooks don’t give Woodburn much of a chance in this main card opener, as the Combat Night champ is currently a +1300 moneyline underdog. Nickal comes back with a massive -2800 price tag to get his hand raised.

I don’t mean to disrespect Nickal because he has a ton of promise, but he shouldn’t be a -2800 moneyline favorite against anyone in the UFC. Now, he may very well win this fight, but I don’t think it will come as easily as the oddsmakers say. 

He’s taking on a fighter who’s a champion in a different promotion with five knockouts to his resumè. Being that Woodburn’s a knockout artist, we can go ahead and throw the old adage out there, “he has a puncher’s chance.” So, with a +2000 payout for Woodburn to win by knockout, I will personally sprinkle a few dollars on it. 

However, my best bet for this Middleweight tilt is for the fight to start the second round (+250). Will Woodburn’s takedown defense hold up? That’s really the only question worth asking here. The 29-year-old trains at the same gym as Chris Curtis, who owns a 92% takedown defense rate in the UFC. Perhaps the veteran Middleweight will part some of his wisdom on Woodburn to help him last against a wrestler of Nickal’s caliber. 

It’s more of a theoretical approach to betting the fight rather than using hard data, but I think it’s worth a shot for Woodburn to last until at least the second round. Let’s take a shot with the +250 payout. 

Pick: Fight to Start Round 2 (+250)

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