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UFC 290 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Brandon Moreno vs. Alexandre Pantoja

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UFC 290 gets underway this Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. This card is absolutely loaded for International Fight Week, with great bouts from top-to-bottom.

In the co-main event, the flyweight title is on the line as Brandon Moreno looks to defend the belt against the number two contender, Alexandre Pantoja. After opening as a moderate favorite, Moreno has now been bet up past the two-dollar mark.

Below, I will walk through the betting profile of each fighter and make my best bet for this flyweight title fight. The play below is 0.41 units, or 0.41% of your betting bankroll.

UFC 290 Best Bet for Moreno vs. Pantoja

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Betting Profile: Brandon Moreno (21-6-2 Overall / 9-3-2 UFC)

Last Five Fights (W-W-L-W-D)

Moreno looks to build upon his legacy in his second career fight against Pantoja. Moreno lost that first matchup via unanimous decision in 2018, which marked his last loss in the UFC to someone not named Deiveson Figueiredo.

With that said, Moreno is a far different fighter now than he was in 2018. He is much more talented and now has five title fights under his belt (yes, that pun was terrible).

A balanced mixed martial artist, Moreno typically gets recognized for his striking but his jiu-jitsu should not be overlooked. In fact, he is a black belt in BJJ under Raul Arvizu and boasts 11 submission victories in his career.

Betting Profile: Alexandre Pantoja (25-5 Overall / 9-3 UFC)

Last Five Fights (W-W-W-L-W)

I mentioned above that these two have fought professionally once before. In actuality, they have fought twice, but the first meeting was an exhibition match during Season 24 of The Ultimate Fighter, and does not count towards either of their professional records.

Pantoja won that first meeting as well, making him an unofficial 2-0 against Moreno. But, like I mentioned earlier, Moreno is a different fighter now than he was in the late 2010s.

Since Pantoja’s latest win over Moreno, he has generally struggled when facing a top guy in the division. He lost via unanimous decision to both Deiveson Figueiredo and Askar Askarov (who is perhaps one of the bigger “what-ifs” in recent UFC history), although Pantoja did submit Brandon Royval.

Like Moreno, Pantoja can handle himself both on the feet and on the mat.

Bottom Line

Pantoja is absolutely a live underdog in this fight, he has beaten Moreno “twice” before and is more than capable of doing so again. However, my biggest concern is how Pantoja will perform once we get to the championship rounds.

He has never been in a five-round fight as a professional, and it will be worth keeping an eye on how he fares down the stretch. Moreno will be an incredibly tough guy to get out of there at any point, boasting a chin of iron and having never been stopped inside the distance.

Furthermore, as mentioned above, Moreno is coming off five straight title fights, and that experience cannot be replicated in a training camp. Moreno submitted Figueiredo in Round 3 of their second bout, and we could see something similar play out in this scrap.

Pantoja is likely the better striker in this fight, and it would not be shocking to see Moreno attempt to bring it to the mat, especially if Pantoja starts to fade down the stretch.

Best Bet: Brandon Moreno via Submission (+925 via Circa – 0.41 units)

Best of luck!

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.