Navigate

UFC 290 Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez Longshot Odds, Picks & Predictions

by |

UFC 290 gets underway this Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. This card is absolutely loaded for International Fight Week, with great bouts from top-to-bottom.

Below, I will walk through my best longshot prop bet to make for this event. This play is 0.41 units or 0.41% of your betting bankroll. Here is our top longshot bet for UFC 290.

UFC 290: Best Longshot Bet

(Odds courtesy of Circa Sportsbook)

Brandon Moreno vs. Alexandre Pantoja

In the co-main event, the Flyweight title is on the line as Brandon Moreno looks to defend the belt against the No. 2 contender, Alexandre Pantoja. After opening as a moderate favorite, Moreno has now been bet up past the two-dollar mark.

These two have a solid history that dates back all the way to Season 24 of The Ultimate Fighter, where Pantoja submitted Moreno during the exhibition tournament. They met again in 2018, where Pantoja won once again, this time via unanimous decision.

A sizable underdog, Pantoja looks to make it 3-0 (2-0 professionally, as the TUF scrap does not officially count) against Moreno. With that said, Moreno has had a very different career since that loss in 2018.

Since then, he has gone on to dethrone Deiveson Figueiredo as the king of the Flyweights in what ended up being an epic four-fight rivalry. Moreno went 2-1-1 over those four fights, including a submission victory to first secure the 125-pound strap in 2021.

A balanced mixed martial artist, Moreno is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and boasts 11 submission victories in his career. Pantoja is absolutely a live dog in this fight, but there is a championship-experience factor that is going to be hard for him to compete with unless he gets Moreno out of there early. That is unlikely, considering Moreno possesses an iron chin and has never been finished inside the distance professionally.

Pantoja has never been in a five-round fight, which means he could fade down the stretch as we go into the championship rounds. Conversely, Moreno is coming off five straight title fights, and that experience cannot be replicated in a training camp.

Pantoja is likely the better striker in this fight, and it would not be shocking to see Moreno attempt to bring it to the mat, especially if Pantoja starts to fade down the stretch.

Bet: Brandon Moreno via Submission (+925) .41u

More UFC 290 Odds & Picks


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.