UFC 295 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Jessica Andrade vs. Mackenzie Dern
The UFC heads to the Big Apple this weekend for another thrilling numbered event. There are a pair of titles on the line at UFC 295, starting with the co-main event, which features a Heavyweight bout between Sergei Pavlovich (#2) and Tom Aspinall (#4). All action leads to the main event, where the Light Heavyweight strap is up for grabs as Jiri Prochazka (#1) squares off against Alex Pereira (#3).
There's one Women's fight on the main card, and it's going to be a banger in the Strawweight division. Fifth-ranked Jessica Andrade takes on fellow Brazilian, seventh-ranked Mackenzie Dern just prior to the co-main event. Let's dive into each fighter's recent form, touch on the betting odds, and round out the article with my favorite bet for Andrade vs. Dern.
UFC 295 Odds, Picks & Predictions
Betting Profile: Jessica Andrade (24-12-0)
Last Five Fights (LLLWW)
Former champion Jessica Andrade has had a rough string of fights recently, dropping three straight in the UFC. Those three losses were all stopped before the final horn, coming at the hands of Erin Blanchfield (SUB - Rear Naked Choke), Yan Xiaonan (KO - Punch), and Tatiana Suarez (SUB - Guillotine), most recently. There has been a lack of takedown defense for Andradre during the recent slide, where she has lost the aggregate takedown battle 4-0.
Statistically, the 32-year-old owns an elevated 6.68 significant strikes landed per minute rate. She's absorbing 5.34 strikes per minute. "Bate Estaca" has historically been reliant on her grappling as she's landing 2.54 takedowns per 15 minutes (54% success rate). The Brazilian's defending 70% of opposing attempts. Finally, it's worth noting that Andrade is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.
Betting Profile: Mackenzie Dern (13-3-0)
Last Five Fights (WLWLW)
Mackenzie Dern is putting together a fantastic MMA career, but she has run into some issues recently against top competition. The 30-year-old has alternated wins and losses over her last five fights, beating Nina Nunes (SUB - Armbar), Tecia Torres (S-DEC), and Angela Hill (U-DEC) while sprinkling in defeats to Marina Rodriguez (U-DEC) and Yan Xiaonan (M-DEC). Dern racked up a high output in her recent win over Hill, out-striking her 126-66. She also won the takedown battle 3-0, racking up 13:12 of control time.
The high-output effort most recently hasn't historically been the way Dern fights. She's averaging just 3.36 significant strikes per minute (40% success rate) while absorbing 4.09 strikes. In terms of her wrestling, she's landing 0.81 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 15% clip. Dern's also defending 40% of opposing takedown attempts. She's currently a third-degree black belt in BJJ.
Bottom Line
The oddsmakers are giving Mackenzie Dern a sizable chance to win this fight, listing her at -205 on the moneyline. Jessica Andrade comes back at +170 to snap her three-fight slide and get her hand raised.
The shortest odds for method of victory in this fight is Dern to win by submission (+120). However, she hasn't found success with her submission attempts recently as her last four fights have all gone the distance. That includes three five-round bouts in the Women's Strawweight division.
Even though Andrade hasn't been sharp recently, it's still worth noting that her career takedown defense rate is 70%. Her task will be trying to keep the fight upright against Dern, who is a high-volume takedown artist but lands just 15% of her attempts. Ultimately, Andrade is in massive need of a victory here, so you can assume she has been drilling takedown defense like crazy. I think her defense will hold up on Saturday night, at least through the first 10 minutes. My best bet here is that the fight starts the third round at +100 odds.
Bet: Fight to Start Round 3: Yes (+100 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
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