UFC 295 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira
The UFC heads to the Big Apple this weekend for another thrilling numbered event. There are a pair of titles on the line at UFC 295, starting with the co-main event, which features a Heavyweight bout between Sergei Pavlovich (#2) and Tom Aspinall (#4). All action leads to the main event, where the Light Heavyweight strap is up for grabs as Jiri Prochazka (#1) squares off against Alex Pereira (#3). Let's dive into the main event, break down each fighter's current form, and round out the article with my top bet for the UFC 295 main event.
UFC 295 Odds, Picks & Predictions
Betting Profile: Jiri Prochazka (29-3-1)
Last Three Fights (WWW)
Saturday night's bout from New York will be just the fourth time that Jiri Prochazka makes the walk in the UFC. However, the 31-year-old is a decorated brawler, who has climbed the UFC rankings with ease. He's a perfect 3-0 in the promotion, notching a pair of wins over Volkan Oezdemir (KO - Punch) and Dominick Reyes (KO - Spinning Back Elbow) before securing the Light Heavyweight championship against Glover Teixeira (Rear Naked Choke) back in June of 2022. However, with a serious shoulder injury, Prochazka was forced to vacate his belt due to the long rehabilitation period.
The Czech brawler enjoys fighting at a high pace, which can be exemplified by the fact that he's dishing out an inflated 5.77 significant strikes per minute. He's also absorbing 5.40 strikes per minute. In terms of grappling, Prochazka is landing 0.38 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 100% success rate. He's defending 68% of opposing attempts. It's worth noting that 25 of his 29 professional victories have come via knockout, three by submission, and one win has gone to the judges' scorecards.
Betting Profile: Alex Pereira (8-2-0)
Last Five Fights (WLWWW)
Alex Pereira is another fighter who has stepped onto the UFC scene and simply dominated his competition. It took just three fights before the matchmakers offered the Brazilian a chance at the belt. Pereira took advantage of the opportunity, knocking out Israel Adesanya (Punches) in the fifth round of their Middleweight bout in November 2022. Izzy would regain his belt (KO - Punch) in the rematch, handing Pereira his lone loss in the new promotion. After the defeat, the now 36-year-old jumped up to the Light Heavyweight division, where he took care of business in a split-decision brawl against Jan Blachowicz.
Statistically, Pereira is landing 5.11 significant strikes per minute at a 62% success rate. He's absorbing just 3.70 strikes per minute. He's not very active in the grappling department, landing just 0.22 takedowns per 15 minutes (100% success rate). He's also defending 70% of opposing attempts. It's worth noting that "Poatan" is a black belt in Kickboxing and a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.
Bottom Line
This is shaping up to be a banger of a main event on Saturday night. The oddsmakers agree as they see Alex Pereira as a slight -125 moneyline favorite. Jiri Prochazka comes back at +105 to regain his Light Heavyweight strap.
The one thing that I feel very confident in is that someone is going to sleep in the main event. However, DraftKings Sportsbook is all over that one, listing the "Method of Victory: Knockout" prop at -330. So, I think it's best to try and play a side here. I'll ride with Alex Pereira as a short favorite.
It's looking like this fight will mainly take place on the feet considering both men average less than 0.40 takedowns per 15 minutes. Being that the Brazilian is a natural kickboxer, I think he'll have an edge if the fight stays vertical. He packs a mean punch, but he's also lethal with his kicks, which adds another dimension to the fight. On top of that, we still have to question how Prochazka will fare after his recent shoulder surgery. All things considered, I think it'll be a tight fight, but I ultimately lean toward Pereira being the last man standing.
Bet: Alex Pereira Moneyline (-125 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
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