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UFC 297 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Neil Magny vs. Mike Malott (2024)

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Neil Magny and Mike Malott face off in what should be an absolute action-packed fight. Malott will be stepping up in class to face the hardest opponent of his young UFC career, and Magny looks to get back on track after a concerning showing against Ian Garry.

I would not look away as this fight has the potential to produce a performance of the night.

Let’s dive in!!!

Neil Magny vs. Mike Malott: UFC 297 Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Let's look at the statistics that will help us make our best prop bets.

Glossary

  • Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
  • Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
  • Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
  • Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
  • Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
  • KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
  • Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
  • Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
  • Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)

The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's look at this compelling matchup!

Mike Malott (-345) vs Neil Magny (+275)

Mike Malott

  • Dist Acc Off: 51.5%
  • Dist Att/Min: 9.03
  • Dist Def: 64%
  • KD%: 4.1% (2 KDs out of 49 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 22.2%
  • Control % Def: 2.8%

Neil Magny

  • Dist Acc Off: 36.1%
  • Dist Att/Min: 11.03
  • Dist Def: 43%
  • KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 187 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 18.4%
  • Control % Def: 28.1%

Malott has started his UFC career with four straight finishes, three by submission and one by KO/TKO. He has a total of 14 minutes and 2 seconds of fight time for four fights. This will be a sizable step up in class compared to what he has fought previously. Malott fights at a moderate pace with formidable defense. He does possess power, as he has two knockdowns over his small sample size. He must get inside Magny’s 80-inch reach to implement his game plan.

Neil Magny is coming off of the most lopsided loss in his career. Ian Garry chopped away at his legs to the tune of 42 unchecked leg kicks. Magny was essentially neutralized immediately. The most concerning thing for Magny is that his distance defense is arguably the worst in the UFC at 42%. The average UFC distance defense is 63%; anything under 50% is concerning, to say the least.

Magny’s last five fights are not for the faint of heart: Ian Garry, Phil Rowe, Gilbert Burns, Daniel Rodriguez and Shavkat Rakhmonov. This can give him some confidence, knowing that all five of those fighters are more developed and polished than Malott. Still, Magny’s recent form is concerning.

Magny has 47 minutes of distance time in his sample size and still carries that horrendous distance defense number. I think this is the perfect storm for two fighters with different trajectories. Malott should be able to connect at will and finish this fight along the way.

Bet: Mike Malott Round 1 Finish (+165)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

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