UFC 299 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit Saint-Denis (2024)

Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit Saint Denis is our co-main event for UFC 299.

This fight will be a rare five-round non-title fight. Sticking with the trend in 2024, it looks to be another passing of the torch type of fight at Lightweight. This fight has the potential to be Fight of the Year. Both fighters have put on some absolute wars; stylistically, this one should live up to the billing.

Let’s dive in!

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Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit Saint-Denis: UFC 299 Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Let's look at the statistics that will help us make our best prop bets.

Glossary

• Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
• Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
• Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
• Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
• Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
• KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
• Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
• Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
• Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)

The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's look at this compelling matchup!

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Benoit Saint-Denis (-205) vs. Dustin Poirier (+170)

Benoit Saint-Denis

• Dist Acc Off: 50.1%
• Dist Att/Min: 14.73
• Dist Def: 50%
• KD%: 1.3% (4 KDs out of 149 distance strikes)
• Control % Off: 45.5%
• Control % Def: 7.4%

Dustin Poirier

• Dist Acc Off: 47.5%
• Dist Att/Min: 15.03
• Dist Def: 50%
• KD%: .8% (2 KDs out of 234 distance strikes)
• Control % Off: 13.7%
• Control % Def: 27.7%

Saint-Denis is coming off a brutal head-kick knockout of Matt Frevola. He has won five fights in a row since losing his UFC debut. All five of his UFC wins have been via finish. This will be a major step up in class, though. None of his previous opponents compare to the skills Poirier will bring to this fight. My biggest concern for Saint-Denis is his distance defense is lacking. A 50% distance defense is not the recipe for success against the sharp boxing acumen of Poirer. Saint-Denis does possess an underrated offensive control game. He enjoys fighting in the clinch and using his wrestling prowess to keep opponents honest.

Poirier is an absolute legend and a first-ballot Hall of Famer. He is coming off his worst career loss at the hands of Justin Gaethje. He is 2-2 in his last four UFC fights, and all four fights were ended via finish. Poirer has long been considered one of the best boxers in the lightweight division and maybe even the entire UFC. He does not possess that one-punch power but instead melts his opponents with overall pressure and accumulative damage. Poirier has reached the dreaded marker for fighters in lighter weight classes and is 35 years old. He looked sharp against Gaethje for as long as the fight lasted and didn’t seem to have lost any precision in his striking.

I do not consider Poirier a title contender anymore at this stage of his career, but I do feel as if he has enough in the tank to go to war with lesser experienced fighters. This may be too big of a step up in competition for Saint-Denis. While he is more athletic and explosive, if he doesn’t get Poirer out of there early, he will melt under the constant combinations and overwhelming pressure.

Bet: Dustin Poirier (+170)

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