UFC 302 Odds & Picks: Niko Price vs. Alex Morono (2024)
The UFC packs its bags and heads to beautiful Newark, New Jersey this weekend, where all roads lead to a Lightweight title fight between Islam Makhachev (C) and Dustin Poirier (#4). The second fight on the main card is a thrilling under-the-radar showdown in the Welterweight division between Niko Price (UR) and Alex Morono (UR). Let's dive into each fighter's recent form, touch on the important statistics, and wrap it up with my favorite way to bet on this bout.
UFC 302: Niko Price vs. Alex Morono Betting Guide
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Niko Price (15-7-0, 2 NC)
Last Five Fights: L-L-W-L-NC
Niko Price is going through a pretty rough stretch in his career right now, as he's dropped four of his last five fights, and has a no-contest against Donald Cerrone mixed in as well. The lone victory came against Alex Oliveira (U-DEC) in October 2021, and he's since been knocked out twice. More recently, those KO's were at the hands of Phil Rowe (Punches) and Robbie Lawler (Punches). Price lasted just 38 seconds before getting deleted by Lawler this past July.
Statistically, The Hybrid is a high-volume fighter, dishing out 5.46 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 5.60 strikes per minute. The 34-year-old isn't too active in the wrestling department, only landing 0.70 takedowns per 15 minutes (20% success rate). He's fending off 64% of opposing takedown attempts. Price is currently a Brown Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.
Betting Profile: Alex Morono (24-9-0, 1 NC)
Last Five Fights: W-L-W-L-W
Alex Morono rattled off four straight wins from May 2021 to July 2022, but he's since alternated wins and losses over his last four fights. The losses came against Santiago Ponzinibbio (KO/TKO - Punches) and Joaquin Buckley (U-DEC), while the wins were against Tim Means (SUB - Guillotine Choke) and Court McGee (U-DEC), most recently. Morono got his hand raised against McGee, despite getting outstruck 60-38 and losing the takedown battle 1-0. The victory came in April 2024, so this is a relatively quick turnaround for the 33-year-old.
The Great White is truly a threat to win by any method, as his 24 professional wins have come by 10 decisions, seven submissions, six knockouts, and a disqualification. Morono is a second-degree Black Belt in BJJ and he also holds a Black Belt in Taekwondo. His wrestling numbers aren't much to write home about, as he's landing only 0.32 takedowns per 15 minutes (22% success rate) while stuffing 55% of opposing takedown attempts. Morono's issuing 4.87 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.16 strikes per minute.
Bottom Line
This will actually be the second time in their careers that these two veterans face off, and it was Niko Price who secured a second-round knockout win back in 2017. However, the fight was overturned after Price tested positive for marijuana, rendering it a no-contest effort.
Despite the head-to-head history, Morono enters the weekend as a sizable -258 moneyline favorite. Price comes back at +215 to snap his two-fight skid and get his hand raised.
At this point, it's probably fair to say that Morono still has a higher ceiling in his career. Price hasn't looked great recently, going just 1-4 with a no-contest over his last six fights. However, while Morono has more wins recently (6-2 in his last eight fights), he hasn't been overly dominant during this stretch of his career. Morono has been out-struck in four straight fights, and four of his last six wins have come by decision.
So, between the head-to-head history and the fact that Morono hasn't been demolishing his opponents, I'm not sure how the market for this fight has climbed up to Morono -258. I think it's time to buy back on Price at +215.
There's a pretty good chance that this fight is staying vertical considering neither fighter logs more than 0.70 takedowns per 15 minutes. With that being said, I actually give Price the advantage on the feet. 10 of his 15 career wins have come by knockout, and as I mentioned above, Morono has been outstruck in his last four fights. Price has the heavy hands to pull off this upset, but if he can't get it done by knockout, his high-volume striking should lead to him having an edge in total strikes, helping his case with the judges. Let's take a shot with the dog in this one!
Bet: Niko Price Moneyline (+215)