UFC 302 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier (2024)
The UFC packs its bags and heads to beautiful Newark, New Jersey this weekend, where all roads lead to a Lightweight title fight between Islam Makhachev (C) and Dustin Poirier (#4). Let's dive into each fighter's recent form, check out the statistics, and wrap up the article with my favorite bet for the main event of UFC 302.
UFC 302: Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier Betting Guide
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Islam Makhachev (25-1-0)
Last Five Fights: W-W-W-W-W
Islam Makhachev is set to make his third title defense on Saturday night. The two previous defenses were winning efforts against Alexander Volkanovski (U-DEC, KO/TKO - Kick), while the initial victory to claim the Lightweight belt came against Charles Oliveira (SUB - Arm Triangle) back in October 2022. Makhachev enters the weekend riding a 13-fight winning streak, and eight of those wins came via stoppage (5 SUB, 3 KO/TKO).
The striking output from Makhachev isn't massive, as he's landing just 2.46 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 1.27 strikes. Chiefly, that's because the Russian brawler is constantly taking a grappling approach. He's landing an elevated 3.17 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 60% success rate. Makhachev only throws 1.0 submission attempts per 15 minutes, but he lands them at a high rate considering 11 of his 25 professional wins have come by tap-out. He's an International Master of Sport in Combat Sambo, and he's defending 90% of opposing takedown attempts.
Betting Profile: Dustin Poirier (30-8-1, 1 NC)
Last Five Fights: W-L-W-L-W
35-year-old Dustin Poirier is no stranger to fighting for the belt, as this will be his fourth time making the walk for a championship fight. He's 1-2 in the previous fights, with the win coming against Max Holloway in an interim title bout back in April 2019. Poirier held the belt for four months before getting choked out (Rear Naked Choke) by Khabib Nurmagomedov. In terms of recent performances, the American has won two of his last three fights, defeating Michael Chandler (Rear Naked Choke) and Benoit Saint-Denis (KO/TKO - Punch), more recently. Sandwiched in between in a knockout loss against Justin Gaethje (Kick).
Statistically, Poirier is landing a high-volume 5.45 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.36 strikes per minute. As for his wrestling, he's adding 1.36 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 36% success rate, while defending 63% of opposing attempts. The Louisiana native is a Black Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and eight of his 30 professional wins have come by submission.
Bottom Line
The oddsmakers aren't giving Dustin Poirier much of a chance in this one, pricing the fourth-ranked contender as a massive +455 underdog. The champion comes back at -625 to successfully defend his strap for the third time.
The chalk betting option in this fight is for Islam Makhachev to win by submission (-120). If you've come for an outside-the-box take, you're not going to get it here (at least with me in this specific fight). With 25 minutes to work with, the Russian champion is going to have plenty of time to grind down Poirier and secure the submission.
Honestly, I'm surprised that Poirier is even getting this chance to fight for the title, as he's dropped two of his last four fights. His takedown defense hasn't been sharp recently, conceding three takedowns apiece to Michael Chandler and Benoit Saint-Denis in his recent fights. Poirier's career takedown defense rate is just 63%, so Makhachev should be able to get him to the canvas throughout this bout.
Ultimately, Makhachev's in the prime of his career at 32 years old, and he's running through every opponent that the promotion puts in front of him. He's refreshed, and he should have no issues taking care of the aging Poirier. I like the champ to retain his belt, and to do so by submitting Poirier for the fourth time in his career.
Bet: Islam Makhachev To Win By Submission (-120)