UFC 302 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Kevin Holland vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (2024)
The UFC packs its bags and heads to beautiful Newark, New Jersey this weekend, where all roads lead to a Lightweight title fight between Islam Makhachev (C) and Dustin Poirier (#4). This UFC 302 card is stacked from top to bottom, including this main card bout in the Middleweight division between Kevin Holland (#15) and Michal Oleksiejczuk (UR). Below I'll dive into each fighter's recent form, touch on the key statistics, and wrap up the article with my favorite bet for this tilt.
UFC 302: Kevin Holland vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk Betting Guide
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Kevin Holland (25-11-0, 1 NC)
Last Five Fights: L-L-W-W-L
Kevin Holland enters the weekend in desperate need of a win, as he's just 2-4 in his last six fights. The 31-year-old's currently riding a two-fight losing streak, where he's lost decisions to Jack Della Maddalena (Split) and Michael Page (Unanimous), more recently. In Holland's defense, he is always stepping up in competition, as the four recent losses have all come against opponents ranked 13th or higher in their divisions. The American's most recent win was a D'Arce Choke submission against Michael Chiesa in July 2023.
Statistically, Trailblazer is issuing a respectable 4.24 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing only 3.19 strikes per minute. He's not very active in the grappling department, landing only 0.85 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 38% clip. Holland, a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Black Belt and second-degree Black Belt in Kung Fu, is defending 54% of opposing takedown attempts.
Betting Profile: Michal Oleksiejczuk (19-7-0, 1 NC)
Last Five Fights: L-W-L-W-W
Like Holland, Michal Oleksiejczuk could use a victory as well. He's just 3-3 in his last six fights, and a win here would surely boost him into the top 15 in the Middleweight rankings. The Polish brawler is coming off an embarrassing loss, where he made it just 61 seconds before getting tapped by Michel Pereira (Rear Naked Choke). That was in March of this year, so it's a relatively quick turnaround. Interestingly, Holland fought Page on the same UFC 299 card earlier this year.
For the most part, Oleksiejczuk's strategy entering the cage is to knock his opponent out. 14 of his 19 professional wins have come via knockout. As for the baseline metrics, the 29-year-old is landing 5.06 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.26 strikes per minute. In terms of his wrestling, Oleksiejczuk is averaging 0.75 takedowns per 15 minutes (44% success rate), and he's defending just 48% of opposing takedown attempts.
Bottom Line
Our friends over at DraftKings Sportsbook have Kevin Holland priced as a sizable -290 moneyline favorite, while Michal Oleksiejczuk comes back at +235 to get his hand raised.
I don't disagree with the oddsmakers here. I think Holland's perfect in this gatekeeper's role, where he's going to handle guys below him, yet struggle when stepping up in the rankings. With that being said, there's no way we can lay the -290 juice on the moneyline here (although it's a somewhat safe choice if you want to throw it in a parlay to get better odds).
I'll play Holland to win this fight inside the distance at -110. For starters, Oleksiejczuk is no stranger to leaving the octagon early, as six of his seven professional losses have come before the final horn (5 SUB, 1 KO). His two recent losses have both been via submission.
From my vantage point, it looks like one of the obvious routes to victory is for Holland to work in his wrestling and go for a submission. He's not too active in the wrestling department (0.85 takedowns per 15 minutes), but he'll be taking on Oleksiejczuk, who is fending off only 48% of opposing takedown attempts. Holland would be better off getting this fight to the canvas considering the Polish fighter has racked up 14 knockout wins in his career.
Ultimately, both men need a victory here, but I think Holland's the more well-rounded fighter. Oleksiejczuk is kind of a one-trick pony, relying too heavily on his knockout striking. Holland should be able to use his speed and diverse arsenal of skills to secure the victory here. I think it will come inside the distance, just like 21 of his 25 professional wins have (14 KO, 7 SUB).
Bet: Kevin Holland to Win by Any Knockout, Submission, or DQ (-110)