UFC 302 Odds & Picks: Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa (2024)
The UFC is back after a week off, and they have a stacked card for UFC 302. The Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, will host the lightweight title bout between Islam Makhachev and Dustin Poirier. The card also features top-ranked middleweight Sean Strickland, who will fight the seventh-ranked Paulo Costa. This pay-per-view card should be enjoyable, with several entertaining fighters. Let's preview the co-main event between the top-10 middleweights.
UFC 302: Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Sean Strickland (-250)
Sean Strickland enters this fight after losing his belt to Dricus Du Plessis via a split decision in January. He is 28-6 in his career and 8-3 since moving to the middleweight division in 2020. Strickland won the belt against Israel Adesanya impressively. He fought like he had nothing to lose against Adesanya and was fighting to not lose against Du Plessis.
Strickland is 33 and primarily a technical striker who weaponizes his cardio. He lands 5.91 significant strikes and absorbs 4.33 significant strikes per minute. Strickland lands with 41% accuracy but is a volume striker and throws lots of jabs and feints to draw reactions from his opponents. He does defend 62% of significant strikes from his opponents due to his boxing technique.
Paulo Costa (+190)
Paulo Costa last fought in February against Robert Whittaker. He lost that fight via unanimous decision and got outclassed by Whittaker, who has been one of the best middleweights in the world for a while. Costa is 14-3 in his career and has not been as active as Strickland. This is an extremely quick turnaround for Costa, given that he typically takes a year off between fights.
Costa is also 33 and a power puncher who throws his all into most of his strikes. He is not typically known for his one-punch power but uses a barrage of punches after landing a big hook to finish his opponents. He lands 6.20 significant strikes and absorbs 6.38 significant strikes per minute.
Prediction
This fight should be standing for the majority of the 15 minutes, and I would be surprised to see either man shoot a takedown. The odds for the fight to go to a decision is +140, so the oddsmakers do not think it impossible. These men have been in five-round fights before, and most of their recent fights have all gone to the judges. Strickland should have the cardio advantage because Costa tends to slow down as the fight moves into the third round. He carries a lot of muscle, which is draining compared to the leaner Strickland.
The big difference in this fight will be Strickland's jab, which will keep Costa at bay. Strickland has a four-inch reach advantage over Costa and surely knows how to use it. Costa gets hit a lot while trying to land big power shots, and that is not typically a recipe for success against Strickland. He will pick him apart as he winds up, and Costa would be better suited to throw shorter counterstrikes instead of long punches that will leave him exposed. Strickland must weather the storm early but should take control of this fight after the first round.
Bet: Sean Strickland To Win by Decision (+195)