UFC 304 Odds & Picks: Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze (2024)
The UFC rolls out an absolutely loaded card for UFC 304 in Manchester, England. The main card gets started with a banger in the Featherweight division, as Arnold Allen (#6) squares off against Giga Chikadze (#10). Below I'll break down each fighter's recent form, dive into their statistics and accolades, and wrap up the article with my betting analysis.
UFC 304: Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Arnold Allen (19-3-0)
Last Five Fights: L-L-W-W-W
It hasn't been a favorable run for Arnold Allen, who's dropped his last two bouts. The Englishman was on the losing end of two consecutive unanimous decisions, first to Max Holloway in April 2023, and then to Movsar Evloev in January 2024. There's certainly no shame in losing to either of those guys, but Allen will have to elevate his game if he wants to break into the top five of the division-each of those losses exposed issues with the 30-year-old's style. In the Holloway fight, it was simply that he got diced up, losing the striking battle 147-76 over five rounds. As for the Evloev bout, Allen conceded five takedowns over 15 minutes.
Historically, Allen's takedown defense has been solid, where he's fending off 75% of opposing attempts. Offensively, he's securing 1.02 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 50% success rate. In terms of striking, "Almighty" Allen is averaging 3.39 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.91 strikes. It's worth mentioning that the Ipswich native is a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.
Betting Profile: Giga Chikadze (15-3-0)
Last Five Fights: W-L-W-W-W
Meanwhile, the only recent blemish on Giga Chikadze's resume is a five-round, unanimous-decision defeat at the hands of Calvin Kattar. It was a 25-minute war, where Kattar out-struck the Georgian 144-128, while also winning the takedown battle 2-0. Chikadze bounced back nicely in August of 2023, securing a unanimous decision win over Alex Caceres. Before the Kattar loss, Chikadze was riding a streak of three straight knockout victories, taking care of Jamey Simmons (Kick), Cub Swanson (Kick), and Edson Barboza (Punch), most recently.
Statistically, "Ninja" is a higher-volume striker, averaging 4.08 significant strikes per minute. He's absorbing 3.44 strikes per minute while avoiding 62% of opposing strike attempts. As for his wrestling, the 35-year-old isn't very active. He's landing 0.23 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 33% clip while fending off 69% of opposing attempts. In terms of belts and accolades, Chikadze is a 3rd degree black belt in Goju-ryu Karate.
Bottom Line
The oddsmakers at DraftKings Sportsbook have Arnold Allen priced as a -225 favorite to snap his two-fight losing streak. 10th-ranked Giga Chikadze comes back as a +185 underdog to get his hand raised in this Featherweight tilt.
I can't argue with the betting market on this one, I agree that Allen should be a sizable favorite. I think he'll take care of business in this three-round bout, and I do expect it to go to the judges' scorecards. I'll go the chalk route and take the Englishman to win by decision at -110.
Allen may be riding a two-fight losing streak, but those defeats have come against two world-class brawlers in Max Holloway and Movsar Evloev. While Chikadze can't be taken lightly, the Georgian boasts no offensive wrestling attack, which means he'll be a one-dimensional opponent for the “Almighty” Arnold Allen.
Aside from getting pieced up by the best boxer in the promotion (Max Holloway), Allen hasn't really shown any issues with his stand-up fighting style. Now that he's fighting down the rankings, I think we'll see a finely tuned, sharp version of the 30-year-old. I'm riding with Arnold Allen to get his hand raised in front of his fellow countrymen, and I expect it to come by points, as Chikadze has yet to bow out early during his time in the UFC.
Bet: Arnold Allen To Win By Decision (-110)