UFC 304 Odds & Picks: Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad (2024)
The UFC is back in action this weekend with a massive card, featuring a pair of title fights. All roads lead to a Welterweight championship bout, as Leon Edwards (C) makes his third title defense against Belal Muhammad (#2). Below, I'll break down each fighter's recent form, touch on their statistics and tendencies, and wrap up the article with my betting analysis for the fight.
UFC 303: Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Leon Edwards (22-3-0, 1 NC)
Last Five Fights: W-W-W-W-NC
There were some doubts surrounding Leon Edwards just a couple of years ago, but the 32-year-old has silenced the critics and elevated himself to being a bona fide champion. The Englishman hasn't lost a fight since December 2015, when he suffered a decision defeat to Kamaru Usman. Since the loss, "Rocky" is 12-0-0 with a no-contest against Belal Muhammad in 2021. Most recently, Edwards handled Colby Covington (U-DEC) in December 2023, out-striking him 57-44 over five rounds. Each fighter landed a pair of takedowns, and Edwards attempted a couple of submission attempts.
Statistically, Edwards isn't a high-volume striker, landing just 2.75 significant strikes per minute. He's absorbing 2.34 strikes per minute. As for his wrestling, Rocky has been averaging 1.25 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 34% clip, while defending 70% of opposing attempts. Finally, it's worth noting that the champ is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.
Betting Profile: Belal Muhammad (23-3-0, 1 NC)
Last Five Fights: W-W-W-W-W
Belal Muhammad finally gets his title shot on Saturday night. The American-born brawler has racked up a similar resume to the champ, going 23-3-0 (1 NC) in his professional career. This includes a current nine-fight winning streak, where Muhammad most recently beat Gilbert Burns (U-DEC) in five rounds. Muhammad made light work of Burns, out-striking him 132-81 over the five rounds. Since the no-contest fight against Edwards in 2021, Muhammad has rattled off five straight victories, handling Demian Maia (U-DEC), Stephen Thompson (U-DEC), Vicente Luque (U-DEC), Sean Brady (KO/TKO - Punches), and Gilbert Burns (U-DEC).
The American has been known to put on takedown clinics in the past, registering 5+ takedowns against both Thompson and Luque. Ultimately, he's averaging 1.98 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 35% success rate, while stuffing 93% of opposing attempts. "Remember the Name" is also averaging 4.55 significant strikes per minute (43% success rate), while absorbing 3.64 strikes per minute. Additionally, the Chicago native is currently a purple belt in BJJ.
Bottom Line
This should be a fantastic main event on Saturday night as Leon Edwards goes for his third title defense against second-ranked Belal Muhammad. The oddsmakers at DraftKings Sportsbook give the champ a sizable edge, pricing him at -258 to retain the strap. The challenger comes back at +210 to get his hand raised.
If we're purely talking about a value play, it's worth a shot on the underdog in this spot. I'm riding with Muhammad to win the Welterweight title on Saturday. This guy might be the most underrated fighter in the promotion. He's not flashy, nor does he rack up the finishes, but he's constantly taking care of business in the octagon. Each time he steps up in competition, he delivers.
Stylistically, we'll probably see a lot of standup boxing in this bout. I actually think that benefits Muhammad in a five-round fight. The challenger is landing 4.55 significant strikes per minute, while the champ sits at just 2.75 strikes per minute. Also, the American is pretty elusive, only getting hit with 43% of opposing attempts. This fight will likely go the distance, as Edwards has never been knocked out nor tapped, and Muhammad has been knocked out just once (2016 vs. Luque).
From a scoring standpoint, it makes sense to ride with the higher-volume striker who's known for being elusive in the cage. Assuming it goes to the judges, I'd like to back the man who will have more significant strikes over 25 minutes. Personally, I think this line should be much tighter, somewhere in the Edwards -140/Muhammad +120 range. Even then, I'd still take a serious look at Muhammad. In my mind, this is a no-brainer to ride with the challenger at more than 2/1.
Bet: Belal Muhammad Moneyline (+210)