UFC 304 Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)
There's no shortage of ways to get in on the action for this weekend's UFC 304 event from Manchester, England. I've narrowed in on three prop bets for this loaded card, including plays in each of the title fights. Here are my three favorite prop bets for UFC 304.
UFC 304 Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Leon Edwards (-258) vs. Belal Muhammad (+210)
All roads lead to a championship fight in the main event, as Leon Edwards (C) makes his third defense of the Welterweight title, this time taking on Belal Muhammad (#2). Leon "Rocky" Edwards is a sizable -258 moneyline favorite, while the challenger comes back at +210 to win his first title shot.
I think there's a realistic chance that this main event will turn into a technical snoozefest. I'm not anticipating a ton of striking from the champ, so I'm going to take the Under on his significant strikes landed.
The Englishman has failed to eclipse this total in four of his last five trips to the octagon. Plus, it's not like he's the one who has to force the pace. Edwards can easily sit back and wait for the action to come to him, as he's the champion.
On the flip side, Muhammad hasn't been hit 85+ times in any of his last 12 fights! He's a pretty methodical fighter who knows how to keep his distance. The American also boasts a very solid 57% strike defense rate, meaning only 43% of his opponents' strikes land. Even if this fight makes it to the judges' scorecards, I still expect Edwards' strike total to come in under 84.5.
Bet: Leon Edwards Under 84.5 Significant Strikes Landed (-135)
Tom Aspinall (-395) vs. Curtis Blaydes (+310)
The co-main event comes in the Heavyweight division as Tom Aspinall makes his first title defense as the interim champion. He'll take on Curtis Blaydes, who gets his first shot at the belt. Aspinall is a massive -395 favorite, while Blaydes comes back as a +310 underdog.
Maybe I'm crazy, but I'm going to say this Heavyweight title fight makes it to the second round. Sure, Aspinall's an absolute killer in the octagon, seeing his last five fights end in the first round.
However, we're talking about Curtis Blaydes here, not your run-of-the-mill Heavyweight who's looking to secure a one-punch knockout. Blaydes is mobile and boasts an insane takedown rate of 5.72 takedowns per 15 minutes. If either Blaydes or Aspinall can land a takedown, it should chew up valuable seconds to help push us into the second round. It's also worth noting that eight of Blaydes' last 10 fights have reached the second round, with one of the two failures being the bout where Aspinall suffered a fight-ending leg injury. This feels like a steal to get this prop at just -120.
Bet: Fight to Start Round 2: Yes (-120)
King Green (-120) vs. Paddy Pimblett (+100)
We have a highly-anticipated Lightweight fight just before the co-main event, as Paddy Pimblett looks for his sixth straight win in the UFC. He's actually a slight underdog (+100) in his home country, where he'll square off against a veteran in King Green (-120).
I think it's worth a shot to say this fight does not go the distance. Only one of Green's last seven fights has seen the judges' scorecards. As for Paddy "the Baddy," three of his five UFC tilts have ended early. Pimblett now has 15 finishes in 21 professional wins.
While Pimblett has yet to get knocked out in his career, I sneakily think this could be the spot for his first. The Englishman doesn't do well to protect himself, as his opponents are landing an elevated 59% of their strikes! That's not a great recipe when running into King Green, who's averaging 6.45 significant strikes per minute. Either way, this fight has a chance to get chaotic, which means someone can easily duck into a powerful blow. I like the plus-money payout that comes with this fight ending early.
Bet: Fight to go the Distance: No (+110)