UFC 305 Odds & Picks: Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg (2024)
The UFC is headed down under for an epic middleweight title fight between Dricus Du Plessis and Israel Adesanya. The promotion will be at the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia, with a stacked card. The best of City Kickboxing will be on display along with several other Australian natives. The fights will begin at the normal time for the east coast, and the fighters will be up bright and early in Australia. The prelims begin at 6:30 p.m. EST and the main card starts on pay-per-view at 10 p.m. EST.
The co-main event is a top-ten flyweight matchup between City Kickboxing's Kai Kara-France and Australia's Steve Erceg. Erceg could move one step closer towards a return to a title fight, and Kara-France may earn a title shot with a victory. It has the highest stakes, which should make it an entertaining battle. Let's preview the fight below.
UFC 304: Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kai Kara-France (+136)
Kai "Don't Blink" Kara-France is 24-11 (1 NC) as a professional and 7-4 inside the UFC. He is on a two-fight losing streak, with his latest loss coming against Amir Albazi by a split decision in 2023. He lost to Brandon Moreno in a flyweight title fight the year prior by knockout.
Kara-France is powerful for the division and has shown an ability to mix things up if needed. He averages 4.57 significant strikes landed per minute while absorbing 3.24 significant strikes per minute. He only lands with 39% accuracy, but he defends 65% of strikes coming his way. Kara-France also averages 0.63 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and has defended 88% of takedowns in the UFC.
Steve Erceg (-162)
Steve "Astroboy" Erceg has been propelled to the top ranks of the flyweight division in a short time. He is 12-2 as a professional and 3-1 in the UFC. His latest fight was a loss to current champion Alexandre Pantoja in May. His first fight in the UFC was in June 2023, and he’s already had a title fight, which is outrageously fast.
Erceg has shown that he can hang with the best in the division. He averages 4.52 significant strikes landed and absorbs 4.20 significant strikes per minute. He also averages 1.24 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and has defended 60% of takedowns.
Prediction
Alexandre Pantoja showed the path to victory against Steve Erceg, and I think Kara-France can exploit that same weakness. Pantoja landed nine takedowns over five rounds against Erceg and controlled him for over eight minutes on the mat. Kara-France has been shown the game plan to beat Erceg, but can he implement it?
Kara-France was able to land one takedown in his title fight against Brandon Moreno but could not control him on the mat and he will have to control Erceg on the mat to win this fight. Erceg is a more technical boxer, while Kara-France has the power advantage. He has not been hurt since joining the UFC, but Kara-France could be the one to land a damaging shot due to his one-punch knockout power. Erceg should be able to win a decision in this fight due to his technical boxing, ability to create angles, and cardio.
Bet: Steve Erceg (-162)