UFC 305 Odds & Picks: Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates (2024)
The UFC is headed down under for an epic middleweight title fight between Dricus Du Plessis and Israel Adesanya. The promotion will be at the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia, with a stacked card. The best of City Kickboxing will be on display along with several other Australian natives. The fights will begin at the normal time for the east coast, and the fighters will be up bright and early in Australia. The prelims begin at 6:30 p.m. EST and the main card starts on pay-per-view at 10 p.m. EST.
The main card opener is a welterweight fight between Li Jingliang and Carlos Prates. Li Jingliang, also known as "The Leech," is a fan favorite and always entertaining. It is a perfect fight to open the card for what will likely be a raucous crowd in Perth.
UFC 305: Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Li Jingliang (+285)
"The Leech" is 19-8 as a professional and 11-6 in the UFC. His last fight was a loss to Daniel Rodriguez in September 2022, so he’s had a long layoff. He is 36 years old and the time off is concerning for a fighter nearing the end of his career.
Jingliang fights out of the orthodox stance and has been fighting for the promotion since 2014. He lands 4.46 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.84. He averages 1.25 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and defends 60% of takedowns.
Carlos Prates (-360)
Carlos Prates is 19-6 as a professional with a 2-0 record in the UFC. He won by knockout on Dana White's Contender Series to earn a UFC contract and has two consecutive finishes in the UFC, both in 2024. He beat Trevin Giles in his debut and landed a knee that finished Charles Radtke in June.
Prates is 30 years old and has solid Muay Thai skills. He will have a seven-inch reach advantage and is six years younger. Prates lands 4.09 significant strikes and absorbs 5.23 significant strikes per minute. He lands with 52% accuracy but only defends 39% of significant strikes.
Prediction
"The Leech" has never been knocked out in his MMA career, but Prates has a good chance to do it on Saturday. Prates is long and utilizes his reach to his advantage. He has solid knees and trains with the Fighting Nerds, who have been entering fights with excellent game plans recently. This is a big step up in competition for Prates, but I expect him to be ready for the challenge.
Prates has defended 80% of takedowns in the UFC and will likely have to defend some against Jingliang. His lengthy reach advantage should help him defend takedowns and maybe land a knee. He should do a good job of staying on the outside, where he’ll be hitting "The Leech" with the end of his punches and avoiding any big punches coming his way. Prates is working his way into the top-15 of the division, and a win over "The Leech" would go a long way. I will be on Prates to win by a decision because Jingliang has proven to be a tough opponent, but the two-year layoff is a concern.
Bet: Carlos Prates To Win By Decision (+250)