UFC 305 Odds & Picks: Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (2024)
UFC 305 features a ton of thrilling fights, but one of the more highly-anticipated bouts comes in a ranked Heavyweight showdown between Tai Tuivasa (#10) and Jairzinho Rozenstruik (#12). Let's check out each fighter's recent form, dive into their statistics, and wrap up with my favorite bet for this banger at 265 Lbs.
UFC 305: Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik Betting Guide
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Tai Tuivasa (15-7-0)
Last Five Fights: L-L-L-L-W
Tai Tuivasa is in desperate need of a victory, as he's now dropped his last four fights. Those four defeats came at the hands of Ciryl Gane (KO/TKO - Punches), Sergei Pavlovich (KO/TKO - Punches), Alexander Volkov (SUB - Ezekiel Choke), and Marcin Tybura (SUB - Rear Naked Choke), most recently. You have to go all the way back to December 2022 to find Tuivasa's last victory, a knockout win (Elbow) against Derrick Lewis. Tuivasa's last 10 fights haven't made it to the judges' scorecards, and he's 5-5-0 in those contests.
Stylistically, "Bam Bam" has one goal when he steps into the cage, and it's to knock his opponent out. He possesses no offensive wrestling capabilities at the moment, averaging 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 0% success rate. He's defending 57% of opposing attempts. Tuivasa is landing 3.96 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 5.05 strikes per minute. The Australian's strike defense rate is just 43%, meaning 57% of his opponents' strikes find a home.
Betting Profile: Jairzinho Rozenstruik (14-5-0)
Last Five Fights: W-L-W-L-L
Jair Rozenstruik is coming off of a winning effort against Shamil Gaziev (KO/TKO) back in March of this year. The main event contest was stopped after four rounds due to Gaziev suffering vision issues, leading to a ref's stoppage. Rozenstruik out-struck his opponent 127-22, but he did concede an early takedown. Prior to the win, "Bigi Boy" alternated losses and a win. Two defeats to Alexander Volkov (KO/TKO - Punches) and Jailton Almeida (SUB - Rear Naked Choke) bookended a win over Chris Daukaus (KO/TKO - Punch).
Stylistically, Rozenstruik has a similar game plan to Tuivasa in that he's hunting for knockouts. The 36-year-old's takedown game is non-existent, as he's averaging 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 0% success rate. However, he is defending 75% of opposing takedown attempts. The Suriname native is landing 3.44 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing only 2.78 strikes per minute.
Bottom Line
The oddsmakers at DraftKings Sportsbook view the 12th-ranked Jairzinho Rozenstruik as a sizable -218 moneyline favorite in this main card showdown. The 10th-ranked Tai Tuivasa comes back at +180 to snap his four-fight slide and get his hand raised.
Well, someone's definitely going to sleep in this fight. Both of these heavyweights are hunting knockouts every time they step into the octagon, and I don't think that'll change on Saturday night. Tai Tuivasa has seen his last 10 fights stopped early, while Rozenstruik's last four have avoided the judges' scorecards.
Typically, I'd look to make a case for the underdog at a long price in a fight where it's two heavyweights strictly looking to knock one another out. However, not many statistics, nor Tuivasa's recent form, favor him. Aside from having a "home-cage advantage," since he's fighting in his own country, not much favors the Australian.
Tuivasa hasn't been sharp recently, dropping his last four fights. He doesn't have an edge in reach (75" vs. 78"), and he's also getting hit with 5.05 significant strikes per minute. Tuivasa's opponents are landing 57% of their significant strike attempts! That's not a great formula when squaring off against a guy who's 14-5 with 13 knockout wins. The inability to avoid getting hit is ultimately what has me shying away from backing Tuivasa at +180.
I think the -218 price with Rozenstruik is warranted, and I expect him to bury Tuivasa in this contest. Once the market opens up, I'm locking in Jair Rozenstruik to win by knockout.
Bet: Jairzinho Rozenstruik By Knockout (Odds N/A at time of writing)