UFC 306 Odds & Picks: Daniel Zellhuber vs. Esteban Ribovics (2024)
UFC 306 is loaded with a couple of title fights and an additional pair of ranked bouts. However, the fun doesn't stop there, as we also have an under-the-radar main card contest in the Lightweight division between Daniel Zullhuber and Esteban Ribovics. Below, I'll break down each fighter's recent form and statistics, and follow that up with my betting analysis and favorite wager for the clash.
UFC 306: Daniel Zellhuber vs. Esteban Ribovics Betting Guide
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Daniel Zellhuber (15-1-0)
Last Five Fights: W-W-W-L-W
Saturday's "UFC Noche" card features eight Mexican fighters, including 25-year-old Daniel Zellhuber. Zellhuber may not be a household MMA name just yet, but he's nearing that territory as he looks to improve upon a 15-1-0 professional career. His lone loss came in the UFC against Trey Ogden (U-DEC) in September 2022, but Zellhuber has since bounced back with a trio of victories. Those three wins came against Lando Vannata (U-DEC), Christos Giagos (SUB - Anaconda Choke), and Francisco Prado (U-DEC), most recently, during which Zellhuber out-struck Prado 120-90 over the 15-minute bout.
Zellhuber is listed as a wrestler in terms of his style, but he's averaging only 0.22 takedowns per 15 minutes (33%). However, his background shows up in the takedown defense metric, where the Mexican-born brawler is fending off 94% of opposing attempts. As for his striking, "Golden Boy" is landing 5.86 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing an elevated 5.06 strikes per minute.
Betting Profile: Esteban Ribovics (13-1-0)
Last Four Fights: W-W-L-W
Esteban Ribovics enters Saturday's UFC 306 event riding a two-fight winning streak. Those victories came against Kamuela Kirk (U-DEC) and more recently Terrance McKinney (KO - Kick). The first-round knockout against McKinney saw each fighter land just five strikes before Ribovics put his opponent to sleep only 0:37 into the clash. The knockout was the seventh of his professional career, improving his finish rate to 92.3% (5 SUB, 1 DEC). The Argentinian's lone professional loss came against Loik Radzhabov (U-DEC) back in March 2023. Radzhabov racked up 11 takedowns in the fight, logging 7:39 of ground control time.
From a statistical standpoint, "El Gringo" is a high-volume striker, landing 6.20 significant strikes per minute and absorbing only 3.49 strikes per minute. As for his wrestling, the 28-year-old is landing 0.93 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 66% clip and defending 60% of opposing takedown attempts.
Bottom Line
This Lightweight tilt is probably the most underrated fight on the card. Two guys with a combined record of 28-2-0 are squaring off as they attempt to jump into the next echelon of the UFC rankings. However, the sportsbooks aren't expecting a close fight; DraftKings Sportsbook has Daniel Zellhuber priced as a -230 moneyline favorite with Esteban Ribovics at +190 to get his hand raised.
In terms of picking a winner, I don't love this fight from a betting perspective. I don't think Zellhuber warrants a -230 price against a fighter who's 13-1-0, so I would say there's value with betting the underdog in this spot. However, Zellhuber has an eight-inch reach advantage, 4.5-inch leg reach advantage, and three-inch height advantage. He also boasts a 94% takedown defense rate, so it'll likely be tough for Ribovics to take the fight to the canvas. The Mexican brawler used his kicks perfectly against Francisco Prado in his most recent fight, which helped to keep his distance en route to a victory (U-DEC). If you twisted my arm to pick a winner of the fight, I'd probably ride with Zellhuber since it appears he has plenty of the defense metrics to help him get the win.
With all of that being said, Zellhuber took quite a few big blows in that recent fight against Prado. His chin held up, but it was definitely tested. He's absorbing 5.06 significant strikes per minute throughout his pro career. Zellhuber will take on Ribovics on Saturday, and the Argentinian fighter has a professional finish rate of 92.3% over his 13 fights (7 KO, 5 SUB, 1 DEC). Clearly, he has the power to put fights away, so if Ribovics lands cleanly, it could put his opponent to sleep.
So, in terms of my best bet, I'm heading to the prop sheet for this one and locking in the under 2.5 rounds at +145. Both of these brawlers have finishing capabilities, as Zellhuber boasts an elevated 66% finish rate (7 KO, 3 SUB) as well. This is a fight between two high-paced, high-volume strikers who are trying to make the jump up the rankings. I think we're in for an absolute war in the Lightweight division, and I expect someone to get knocked out or tapped before the 12.5-minute mark.
Bet: Under 2.5 Rounds (+145)