UFC 306 Odds & Picks: Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili (2024)
The UFC stays in the Fight Capital of the World this week, where Dana White will look to put on a massive show at Sphere for UFC 306. The card features a couple of title fights, but all roads lead to a Bantamweight championship tilt between Sean O'Malley (C) and Merab Dvalishvili (#1). Let's dive into how each fighter got here, check out their stats and tendencies, and wrap up with my favorite bet for the main event.
UFC 306: Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili Betting Guide
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Sean O'Malley (18-1-0, 1 NC)
Last Five Fights: W-W-W-NC-W
"Suga" Sean O'Malley will make the walk for his 21st time professionally on Saturday night, and this will be his second defense as the Bantamweight champion. The 135-pound champ is coming off of a clinical win over Marlon Vera in March 2024, during which he cruised to a unanimous-decision after out-striking Vera 230-89. O'Malley earned the belt seven months earlier when he knocked out Aljamain Sterling (Punches) in the second round. The American hasn’t lost since his initial fight against Vera (KO - Elbows) back in August 2020, when he suffered a leg injury. O'Malley is undefeated in his last seven trips to the octagon (6-0-0, 1 NC).
Statistically, the 29-year-old is a high-volume striker, averaging 7.63 significant strikes per minute at a 61% clip. He's absorbing only 3.52 strikes per minute. O'Malley is not too active in the takedown department, landing only 0.35 per 15 minutes (42% success rate). However, the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu brown belt is defending 62% of opposing takedown attempts and takedown defense will be paramount in this title fight, as Merab Dvalishvili loves taking the fight to the canvas.
Betting Profile: Merab Dvalishvili (17-4-0)
Last Five Fights: W-W-W-W-W
Merab Dvalishvili enters Saturday's main event riding a 10-fight winning streak. The Georgian hasn't lost since submitting to Ricky Simon (Guillotine Choke) back in April 2018 and that winning streak has earned Dvalishvili his first title shot in the UFC. The 33-year-old has taken care of some big names in the division over the last few years, handling Jose Aldo (U-DEC), Petr Yan (U-DEC), and most recently Henry Cejudo (U-DEC). Dvalishvili out-struck Cejudo 74-29 over 15 minutes, racking up five takedowns and 4:23 of ground control time.
The challenger leans heavily on his wrestling, exemplified by the fact that he has scored 10+ takedowns in a single fight on four occasions in the UFC. Dvalishvili is landing 6.43 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 36% success rate, while also defending 80% of opposing attempts. As for his striking, he's landing 4.50 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing only 2.37 strikes per minute. In terms of accolades, it's worth noting that "The Machine" is a black belt in Judo.
Bottom Line
The betting market suggests that this title fight should be pretty evenly matched. Suga Sean is priced at -130 to retain the belt, while The Machine comes back at +110 to secure his first UFC title.
Let's address the elephant in the room straight away - Can O'Malley's takedown defense and wrestling hold up against Dvalishvili? We've seen the Georgian absolutely ragdoll people in the octagon before, and the high-volume wrestling is clearly the biggest threat to O'Malley keeping the strap.
I think O'Malley's wrestling will be up to par in this contest, and I believe that we're going to see him put on a solid performance defending takedowns. O'Malley has a 62% takedown defense rate, and he's constantly stating that he doesn't really lean on his wrestling because he's never forced to use it. I'm buying that statement, and I think we could see the American prove that he has championship-caliber wrestling.
But even if that's not the case, I have to point out the disparity in height and reach in this fight. O'Malley's a lengthy 5' 11" with a reach of 72". Dvalishvili is standing at 5' 6" with a 68" reach. Should Dvalishvili get O'Malley to the mat, he’ll have a tough time keeping him there. We’ve sees time and time again that taller fighters are able to use their length to easily make it back to their feet and essentially neutralize their opponents wrestling (i.e. Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov last month).
Ultimately, I think that's all this fight boils down to. Dvalishvili isn't much of a knockout threat, as he only has three KOs in his professional career. O'Malley should, as always, have a sizable edge on the feet. With his reach, precision, and power, I predict that he's going to dominate Dvalishvili. Honestly, it feels like a bargain that we only have to lay a -130 price with the champ. During this 10-fight winning streak, Dvalishvili hasn't fought anyone taller than 5' 8", and I think that's going to throw a massive wrench into his wrestling-first style. Give me O'Malley on the moneyline.
Bet: Sean O'Malley Moneyline (-130)