UFC 306 Prop Bets, Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)
There is no shortage of ways to get in on the action for this weekend's UFC 306 card from Sphere in Las Vegas, Nevada. I'm heading to the prop sheet in this article, where I've narrowed in on three prop bets for the loaded event.
UFC 306 Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Sean O'Malley (-130) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (+110)
All roads lead to a championship fight in the Bantamweight division, as Sean O'Malley (C) looks to make his second successful title defense against Merab Dvalishvili (#1). The betting markets see the Suga Show as a slim -130 moneyline favorite, while The Machine comes back at +110 to win his first championship fight.
I'm pretty confident that Sean O'Malley is going to retain the belt on Saturday night. You can check out my full breakdown and analysis for the fight here. In a similar line of thinking as I laid out in that article, I anticipate the height and reach causing a big issue for the challenger in this spot. O'Malley (5' 11") will be the tallest fighter that Dvalishvili has faced during his current 10-fight winning streak, with no other brawler standing above 5' 8".
We see time and time again how much of an issue it is to secure takedowns against taller fighters. I expect the lengthy frame of O'Malley to throw a wrench in Dvalishvili's wrestling-first game plan. Sure, Merab may land a few takedowns throughout the fight, but I don't think he'll eclipse 8.5 total takedowns. O'Malley brings in a respectable 62% takedown defense rate, and I guarantee he's been drilling plenty of wrestling during his camp. He's yet to be taken down more than six times in a single fight in his career. This line is pretty lofty, so I'm going to lock in the under.
Bet: Merab Dvalishvili Under 8.5 Takedowns Landed (-165)
Alexa Grasso (-142) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (+120)
The co-main event caps off a trilogy in the Women's Flyweight division, where Alexa Grasso (C) looks to defend her belt against long-time former champion Valentina Shevchenko (#1). Grasso's a decently-sized favorite to beat the challenger, sitting at -142 over at DraftKings Sportsbook. Shevchenko is +120 to win back her belt.
I'll lock in Shevchenko to eclipse 79.5 significant strikes in this fight. "Bullet" is not typically a high-volume striker, landing only 3.28 significant strikes per minute. However, she is quite accurate, landing 52% of those strikes. Grasso's absorbing 3.95 significant strikes per minute, and her opposition is landing at a 42% success rate.
Shevchenko has cleared this line in both of the head-to-head fights, landing 87 in her fourth-round submission defeat in March 2023, while following it up with an 80-strike outing in the draw in September 2023. This marks three straight fights in which Grasso has absorbed 80+ strikes, with the third being a five-round fight against Viviane Araujo, where she got hit 126 times over 25 minutes. I think we'll get another five-round fight in this co-main event, which will leave Shevchenko plenty of time to amass significant strikes.
Bet: Valentina Shevchenko Over 79.5 Significant Strikes Landed (-115)
Daniel Zellhuber (-238) vs. Esteban Ribovics (+195)
One of the more under-the-radar bouts on Saturday's main card comes in the Lightweight division, where Daniel Zellhuber takes on Esteban Ribovics. Zellhuber's a huge -238 moneyline favorite, while Ribovics sits at +195 to win his third straight tilt.
I can't pass up on sprinkling a few dollars on this fight to end early. Both of these guys are bonafide finishers, with Ribovics leading the way with a 92.3% finish rate. He's ended 12 of his 13 professional wins early, racking up seven knockouts and five submissions. Zellhuber, on the other hand, has finished 10 of his 15 professional fights (66.7%), accumulating seven knockouts and three submissions.
These brawlers only have 15 minutes to put on a show and make their case to break into the Lightweight rankings. I think Ribovics, who is the shorter fighter, will have to take some chances to close the distance to try and do damage. That could either work to his favor, or Zellhuber could catch him and end this fight early. Either way, I think we're in for an absolute war in this one, and I expect someone to get put down early.
Bet: Fight to go the Distance: No (+140)