UFC 307 Odds & Picks: Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. (2024)
There are a pair of UFC belts on the line Saturday night in Salt Lake City, Utah, as the promotion rolls out a stacked UFC 307 card. All roads lead to a Light Heavyweight title bout at 205 Lbs., pitting Alex Pereira (C) against Khalil Rountree Jr. (#8). Let's dive into each fighter's recent form and how they got here, and wrap up the article with my favorite bet for the main event.
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UFC 307: Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. Betting Guide
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Alex Pereira (11-2-0)
Last Five Fights: W-W-W-W-L
After an accomplished 33-7 kickboxing career, Alex Pereira has made a smooth transition to the UFC and taken the MMA world by storm. He's off to an 11-2 professional start in his MMA career, where he's held UFC title belts in both the Middleweight division and the Light Heavyweight division. Since losing the Middleweight title to Israel Adesanya (KO/TKO - Punches) in April 2023, "Poatan" has rattled off four straight wins in the Light Heavyweight class. That includes notching a split-decision over Jan Blachowicz, before winning three title fights against Jiri Prochazka (KO/TKO - Elbows), Jamahal Hill (KO/TKO - Punch), and Jiri (KO/TKO - Kick) again. This will be Pereira's fourth fight in the UFC in the last 11 months.
Statistically, the Brazilian is an accurate, high-volume striker. He's landing 5.23 significant strikes per minute at a 63% clip, while absorbing only 3.51 strikes per minute. He's not very active in the takedown department, averaging only 0.17 takedowns per 15 minutes (100% success rate). Pereira is a black belt in both Kickboxing and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, defending 70% of opposing takedown attempts.
Betting Profile: Khalil Rountree Jr. (14-5-0, 1 NC)
Last Five Fights: W-W-W-W-W
Khalil Rountree, a 34-year-old American, is on an excellent run of his own in the UFC. He's rattled off five straight victories, with four of them coming by knockout. Those victories are against Modestas Bukauskas (KO/TKO - Kick), Karl Roberson (KO/TKO - Punch), Chris Daukaus (KO/TKO - Punch), and Anthony Smith (KO/TKO - Punch), most recently. Sandwiched in between is a split-decision victory against Dustin Jacoby in October 2022. Clearly, Rountree possesses a powerful punch, as he's racked up nine professional knockouts during a 14-5-0 (1 NC) pro career.
The American isn't landing a lot of strikes when he steps into the octagon, averaging only 3.84 significant strikes per minute (39% success rate). He's absorbing 4.18 strikes per minute. Rountree's wrestling is non-existent, averaging 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes. He is defending 58% of opposing takedown attempts.
Bottom Line
Saturday's main event in Salt Lake City should be a banger, as Khalil Rountree challenges Alex Pereira. The latter of the fighters is making his third title defense as the Light Heavyweight champion. Pereira is a massive favorite to retain the belt, sitting at -500 on the moneyline. Eighth-ranked Rountree is a +380 underdog to get his hand raised and secure his first UFC title.
I have to agree with the betting market on this one, in that I believe Pereira is going to cruise to another successful defense of the title. If you simply compare the level of competition that the two brawlers have faced, you can see that the Brazilian has a massive edge there. He's handled some of the toughest guys in the world, including Israel Adesanya, Jan Blachowicz, and Jiri Prochazka (x2). I mean, he dominated Prochazka, something we've never seen in the UFC before. On the flip side, Rountree has been demolishing his opponents, but the strength of schedule just isn't there.
- Leg 1: Alex Pereira Three-Way Moneyline (-525)
- Leg 2: Under 2.5 Rounds (-235)
- Leg 3: Method of Victory: KO/TKO/DQ (-700)
From a betting perspective, it's tough to find a valuable wager on the champ. However, we can lock in a same game parlay (SGP) where we back Pereira to win (-525), with the exact method of victory being a knockout (-700), as well as adding the fight to go Under 2.5 Rounds (-235). This trio provides a -140 payout, and I think it's the best way to approach the fight from a wagering standpoint.
The biggest thing that stands out to me statistically is that Pereira is landing 63% of his strikes. He packs a massive punch, and to be landing that accurately with those heavy hands is why he's the champ. Roundtree, on the other hand, is landing only 39% of his strikes, and he's absorbing 4.18 significant strikes per minute compared to dishing out only 3.84 strikes. Ultimately, I think Rountree will be the latest addition to Pereira's highlight reel of knockouts. I'm backing the champ to secure a knockout in under 12.5 minutes on Saturday night.
Parlay Odds: -140