UFC 307 Odds & Picks: Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista (2024)
UFC 307 does not have the huge names of MMA, but it is packed with veterans of the sport. The first fight is between Tim Means and Court McGee, which will surely be a banger. The card features fighters who have entertained fans in the UFC for years, and I expect a fantastic card. Alex Pereira and Khalil Rountree Jr. will face off in the co-main event for the light heavyweight belt to cap off the night. The card begins at 6:30 pm, and the pay-per-view main card starts at 10 pm.
The featured fight of the night is in the bantamweight division between Jose Aldo and Mario Bautista. It is a solid fight between a legend of the sport and an up-and-coming fighter on a winning streak.
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UFC 307: Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jose Aldo (+120)
Jose Aldo looked great in his return to MMA in May. He dominated Jonathan Martinez for 15 minutes and won impressively after boxing for a year. His last fight before boxing was against the current champion, Merab Dvalishvili, in 2022. He lost via decision, but it was a competitive fight, and Aldo did not get taken down.
Aldo lands 3.63 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.73 significant strikes, but he defends 60% of strikes offered. He averages 0.51 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends 91% of takedowns.
Mario Bautista (-142)
Mario Bautista is 14-2 overall, with an 8-2 record in the UFC. He is on a six-fight winning streak, with his last against Ricky Simon. His last finish was a rear naked choke against Guido Cannetti in 2023.
He lands 5.69 significant strikes and absorbs 3.99 significant strikes per minute. He averages 2.25 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and defends 66% of takedowns.
Prediction
Jose Aldo looked amazing in his last fight. He dominated Martinez for the entire fight and cemented the victory with a takedown and control time in the final round. Bautista could face the same outcome if he is not careful. Aldo will stuff all his takedown attempts and start to counter after he shoots and misses. Bautista has decent boxing, but not on the level of Aldo, who went 2-0-1 as a boxer in 2023, so he remained active despite not being in MMA.
Bautista will have to find a way to land damaging strikes to beat Aldo. His wrestling defense is too good and he will need to target Bautista with low kicks to slow him down. Bautista will try to pressure him much like Dvalishvili did. Aldo cannot throw strikes if he is constantly defending takedowns, but wrestling for 15 minutes is a tiresome task. Bautista probably has the cardio to pressure for 15 minutes, but doing it against someone like Aldo is different.
If Dvalishvili could not land a takedown, I doubt Bautista does. I like Jose Aldo to win this fight, but it is going the distance. The judges will decide, which means you should play it cautiously with how much you risk. The fight to go the distance is a solid play to add to a parlay at -280.
Bet: Jose Aldo (+120)