UFC 307 Odds & Picks: Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Pena (2024)
UFC 307 does not have huge names of MMA but is packed with veterans of the sport. The first fight is between Tim Means and Court McGee, which will surely be a banger. The card features fighters who have entertained fans in the UFC for years, and I expect a fantastic card. Alex Pereira and Khalil Rountree Jr. will face off in the co-main event for the light heavyweight belt to cap off the night. The card begins at 6:30 p.m. ET, and the pay-per-view main card starts at 10 p.m. ET.
The co-main event is a title fight between Raquel Pennington and Julianna Pena. Pennington, the current champion, is taking on the former champion of the bantamweight division, Julianna Pena. Fans will enjoy this fight between two fighters who like to get after it.
UFC 307: Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Pena
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Raquel Pennington (–170)
Pennington is 16-9 and had an up-and-down path to the title. She is on a six-fight winning streak and claimed her title in her latest fight against Mayra Bueno Silva. She is 16-9 overall but has faced stiff competition in her career.
Pennington lands 4.14 significant strikes and absorbs 3.29 significant strikes per minute. She lands 52% of her attempted strikes and defends 60% of strikes coming her way. She only averages 0.90 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and has a 63% takedown defense.
Julianna Pena (+142)
Julianna Pena has not fought since losing to Amanda Nunes in 2022. That fight was in July 2022, and her win over Nunes was in December 2021. She is 12-5 overall with a 7-3 record with the promotion.
Pena averages 3.16 significant strikes landed and 2.30 significant strikes absorbed per minute. She lands 1.94 takedowns per 15 minutes with 55% accuracy, and her last two wins came via rear naked choke.
Prediction
These two women are gritty and know how to break their opponents. Pennington is 36 years old but looks as impressive as ever. She is not the fighter that was once on “The Ultimate Fighter” in 2013. Pena won that show in 2013, but they never fought. Jessica Rakoczy beat Pennington but lost to Pena in the final fight. Pennington has been more active recently and is my pick to win the battle.
Pena has not fought in a little over two years. Pennington has fought three times since 2022 and has been active in the UFC since 2018 after not fighting in 2017. There are many variables in long layoffs for fighters, but it is hard to perceive an extended layoff as good for a fighter.
Pena is a solid wrestler but not great at defending takedowns. Pennington has a lot of experience on the mat and could land takedowns of her own. She has good grappling defense and should be smart to what Pena offers. Pennington's striking should be better and more technical while being more defensive. Pena is a competitor and will have moments in this fight, but Pennington has way more momentum and confidence entering the octagon.
Bet: Raquel Pennington (-170)