UFC 307 Preliminary Card Odds & Picks (2024)
Saturday's UFC 307 card from Salt Lake City is absolutely loaded, featuring seven top-15 matchups. There are some bangers on the preliminary card, and that's my focus in this article. Here are three bets that I've made on the UFC 307 prelims.
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UFC 307 Preliminary Card Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Stephen Thompson (+180) vs. Joaquin Buckley (-218)
The prelims wrap up with a ranked banger in the Welterweight division, as Stephen Thompson (#9) squares off against a fellow American in Joaquin Buckley (#11). Buckley, who's riding a four-fight winning streak, is a sizable -218 moneyline favorite. Thompson comes back at +180 to get his hand raised.
It's been a tough run for "Wonderboy," as he's just 1-3 in his last four bouts. However, he's taken on some of the toughest Welterweights in the world, with the recent losses coming against Gilbert Burns (U-DEC), Belal Muhammad (U-DEC), and Shavkat Rakhmonov (SUB - Rear Naked Choke). I think that this is a great buy-low spot on Thompson, so I'll sprinkle on him to win this fight. Thompson has black belts in three different disciplines, as well as a brown belt in BJJ so he should be ready for anything that Buckley throws at him. I think the experienced Thompson has the edge here with his sound defensive numbers and strength of opponents faced. In my opinion, it's worth a flier on the underdog in this spot.
Bet: Stephen Thompson Moneyline (+180)
Marina Rodriguez (+164) vs. Iasmin Lucindo (-198)
22-year-old Iasmin Lucindo (#14) will make the UFC walk for the fifth time on Saturday night, and she's a -198 favorite to beat 37-year-old Marina Rodriguez (#6). The veteran Brazilian is +164 to get back in the win column after losing to Jessica Andrade (S-DEC) in April 2024.
I'm taking it to the prop sheet for this Women's Strawweight bout, and I'm locking in Rodriguez to go Under 57.5 significant strikes landed. The formula appears to be straightforward with Lucindo, in that she wants to take her opponent to the ground and get a finish. She's landed eight takedowns during her current three-fight winning streak, and she'll take on Rodriguez, who has conceded at least one takedown in each of her last 10 fights! Obviously, it's tough to land strikes while lying on your back, so this is ultimately why I think she stays under this number. If the fight does stay vertical, Lucindo has an excellent strike defense rate of 66%, meaning only 34% of her opponent's strikes are landing. Give me Rodriguez to go Under 57.5 significant strikes landed.
Bet: Marina Rodriguez Under 57.5 Significant Strikes Landed (-115)
Ryan Spann (-245) vs. Ovince Saint Preux (+200)
A couple of veterans wrap up the early prelims on Saturday in a Light Heavyweight showdown, as Ryan Spann goes toe-to-toe with Ovince Saint Preux. Spann enters the weekend priced at -245 to snap a three-fight losing streak, while Saint Preux is a +200 underdog to win his third fight in four tries.
I'm going to lay the juice here and say that this fight ends in a knockout. These are two heavy-handed brawlers who are in desperate need of wins to stay relevant in the UFC. Furthermore, both fighters see their opponents land at least 53% of their strikes. For Spann, his opponents are landing 56% of their strikes, which isn't a great formula when taking on a guy like Saint Preux. The Haitian fighter is 27-17 in his career, and 14 of his fights have ended in knockouts (12 KO wins, 2 KO losses). Spann has added six knockout wins in his 21-10 career, while also being KO'ed four times. Look for these two veterans to lay it all on the line Saturday and be swinging for knockouts.
Bet: Exact Method of Victory: KO/TKO/DQ (-160)