UFC 307 Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)
The UFC returns to Salt Lake City, Utah this weekend for UFC 307, which features a loaded card from beginning to end. There's no shortage of ways to get some skin in the game, including heading to the prop sheet. Below I've narrowed in on three prop bets for UFC 307.
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UFC 307 Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Alex Pereira (-470) vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. (+360)
All roads lead to a main event in the Light Heavyweight division, as Alex Pereira (C) makes the third defense of his title against Khalil Rountree Jr(#8). The Brazilian is a massive -470 moneyline favorite to retain the belt, while the challenger comes back at +360.
I have a full write-up for this fight here, where I break down why I like Pereira to dust Rountree in Under 2.5 rounds. Sticking with that theme and heading to the prop market, I'm going to take Rountree to land Under 29.5 significant strikes. Both of these men are knockout artists, and I don't think we're going to see a very long main event. Pereira is 11-2-0 in his MMA career with nine knockouts, while Rountree has knocked out four of his last five opponents.
Diving deeper into the numbers, Rountree isn't a very high-volume striker, landing only 3.84 significant strikes per minute. He's also landing his strikes at a deflated rate of just 39%. The American is also at a three-inch reach disadvantage, so this really isn't a great spot for him. Meanwhile, Pereira has absorbed 30 or fewer strikes in each of his last three fights, and I anticipate that trend continuing on Saturday night. Give me the Under 29.5 significant strikes landed for Khalil Rountree.
Bet: Khalil Rountree Jr. Under 29.5 Significant Strikes Landed (-115)
Raquel Pennington (-170) vs. Julianna Pena (+142)
The first of two championship fights on Saturday comes in the Women's Bantamweight division, where Raquel Pennington (C) looks to defend her title against Julianna Pena (#1). The champ is a moderately-sized -170 moneyline favorite, while Pena, a former champion herself, is +142 to win back the belt.
The more that I ponder this co-main event, the more I think that we're likely going to get a full 25-minute, standup kickboxing match. While both women are solid on the canvas, neither is averaging north of 2.00 takedowns per 15 minutes. Furthermore, Pennington is 16-9-0 in her professional career, winning 11 of those fights by decision.
With all of that being said, I think Pennington is going to have a full 25 minutes to accumulate significant strikes on the feet. She's seen eight of her last nine fights go to the judges' scorecards, and the only one that didn't was a submission victory where she didn't land a takedown. The only notable five-round fight for the champ was her last winning effort against Mayra Bueno Silva, where she amassed 134 significant strikes over 25 minutes. Pena has a modest 50% defense rate, meaning 50% of her opponent's strikes are landing. I expect Pennington to clear this threshold of 86.5 significant strikes in the co-main event.
Bet: Raquel Pennington Over 86.5 Significant Strikes Landed (-115)
Jose Aldo (+124) vs. Mario Bautista (-148)
Jose Aldo (#10) will make the walk for the 41st time in his professional career, and he brings in a fantastic 32-8-0 record. He'll take on Mario Bautista (#11) in this Bantamweight tilt, and the American is looking to secure his seventh straight victory. He's a -148 moneyline favorite to do so, while the veteran Brazilian is +124 to win his 33rd professional MMA fight.
My coworker, Trent Conner, broke down this fight here, and one stance that I definitely agree with is that Aldo is not getting taken down in this fight. The 38-year-old boasts a 91% takedown defense rate, and he hasn't been taken down in his last two fights. One of which was against Merab Dvalishvili, who's an absolute takedown machine. Dvalishvili, who's the current Bantamweight champ, went 0-for-16 on takedowns in the fight.
I say all of this because I think we're in for a standup fight between Aldo and Bautista, which should allow for these two to rack up significant strikes on the feet. So, I'm going to ride with Aldo to eclipse this number of 53.5 significant strikes on Saturday night. He's landing a modest 3.63 significant strikes per minute at a 46% clip. He'll take on Bautista, who's absorbing 3.99 strikes per minute. I feel that Bautista may even abandon going for takedowns altogether at some point, which should turn this into a straight-up boxing match. The oddsmakers suggest the fight to go the distance (-280 at DraftKings), so we should get a full 15 minutes to work with. Give me Aldo to piece up the 11th-ranked Bautista for at least 54 significant strikes.
Bet: Jose Aldo Over 53.5 Significant Strikes Landed (-115)