UFC 308 Odds & Picks: Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway (2024)
The UFC packs its bags this weekend and heads across the pond to Yas Island, U.A.E., where the Featherweight title is on the line at UFC 308. Ilia Topuria (C) will make his first title defense at 145 Lbs., and his first challenger is Max Holloway (#2). Let's dive into how each fighter got here, touch on their tendencies, and wrap it up with my betting analysis.
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UFC 308: Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway Betting Guide
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Ilia Topuria (15-0-0)
No one has been able to slow down Ilia Topuria in his professional MMA career, as the 27-year-old is a perfect 15-0-0 out of the gate. That includes a 7-0-0 stint in the UFC, where he's taken care of notable fighters like Bryce Mitchell (SUB - arm triangle), Josh Emmett (U-DEC), and Alexander Volkanovski (KO/TKO - punch), most recently. The win against Volkanovski in February was a title fight at UFC 298, where Topuria knocked out the former champ in the second round. Volk out-struck him 47-35, which is the third time Topuria has been on the wrong end of the "striking battle" during his UFC tenure.
Topuria is a solid wrestler and has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He averages 1.92 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 56% success rate. His defense rate is 92%, but it's unlikely that he'll need to lean on those skills against a pure striker like Max Holloway. Speaking of striking, the Spanish-Georgian brawler is landing 4.40 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing only 3.35 strikes per minute. Topuria's strike defense is 65%, meaning he's only getting hit by 35% of opposing strike attempts.
Betting Profile: Max Holloway (26-7-0)
"Blessed" Max Holloway is coming off of a Fight of the Year-worthy performance against Justin Gaethje back in April, where he knocked out his opponent with just 0:01 on the clock in the fifth round. That was for the BMF title, and it marked Holloway's third straight victory in the UFC octagon. The American has also taken care of Arnold Allen (U-DEC) and Chan Sung Jung (KO/TKO - Punch) en route to this opportunity at UFC gold. This will be Holloway's 10th UFC title fight (not counting the BMF title), and he's 5-4 in those bouts. Three of the losses came against the aforementioned Alexander Volkanovski.
Stylistically, Holloway's approach is pretty straightforward in that he wants to piece his opponent up with his boxing. In my opinion, he has the best hands in the promotion, and he's using those weapons to land an insane 7.17 significant strikes per minute. The 32-year-old is absorbing an elevated 4.72 significant strikes per minute. His offensive wrestling is non-existent, as he's averaging only 0.25 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 53% clip. Defensively, Holloway is fending off 84% of opposing takedown attempts.
Bottom Line
All roads lead to a Featherweight title fight on Saturday, as Ilia Topuria looks to make his first successful defense against a former champion in Max Holloway. The sports betting market is optimistic regarding Topuria, as he's a (-230) moneyline favorite to retain the strap. Holloway comes back at (+190) to notch his fourth straight win and secure the Featherweight belt.
I agree that the champ should be favored in this fight, but I'm sure he warrants a (-230) price tag against a battle-tested brawler like Holloway. In my opinion, this line has gone too far, and I'm going to buy back on Holloway to win at (+190).
Aside from beating a downward-trending Alexander Volkanovski, Topuria doesn't have much on his resume to write home about. Meanwhile, Holloway has nine title fights under his belt, and he's fought just about every legendary Featherweight and Lightweight of the last decade. The challenger does have a trio of losses to Volk, but no one else has beaten him since 2019.
I think the big question is whether the American's takedown defense can hold up. He boasts a solid 84% takedown defense rate, and he hasn't been taken to the canvas since a 2021 bout with Yair Rodriguez. If Holloway can keep this fight upright, which I'm betting that he can, then he's going to win. Holloway has the silkiest hands in the promotion, and his high-volume output should see him run up the strikes on the judges' scorecards. I'm riding with Holloway to pull off the upset on Saturday afternoon.