UFC 308 Odds & Picks: Lerone Murphy vs. Dan Ige (2024)
The UFC heads abroad this weekend to Yas Island, U.A.E, for the 308th numbered event in the promotion's history. This loaded card features five ranked fights, one in the Featherweight division between Lerone Murphy (#12) and Dan Ige (#14). Below I'll break down each fighter's recent form, dive into their statistics, and wrap it up with my favorite bet for the bout.
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UFC 308: Lerone Murphy vs. Dan Ige Betting Guide
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Lerone Murphy (14-0-1)
England's Lerone Murphy is an unbeaten 14-0-1 in his professional career. The lone blemish, if you can call it that, is a draw against Zubaira Tukhugov in his UFC debut back in 2019. Since the draw, Murphy has rattled off another six victories. He's won three straight decisions, beating Gabriel Santos (split), Josh Culibao (unanimous), and Edson Barboza (unanimous), most recently. The Barboza victory was an absolute onslaught from the Englishman, where he out-struck his opponent 220-79 and landed four takedowns.
Murphy is a well-balanced fighter, as he's landing plenty of strikes, but also mixing in some grappling as well. The 33-year-old is averaging 5.01 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 2.60 strikes per minute. As for his wrestling, Murphy is averaging 1.59 takedowns per 15 minutes at 52% success rate. His defense is a tad shaky, as he's only fending off 46% of opposition takedown attempts. "The Miracle" is a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and he's throwing 0.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes. He doesn't have a submission victory in his professional career but does have seven knockouts.
Betting Profile: Dan Ige (18-8-0)
When we last saw Dan Ige it was in a co-main event at UFC 303, where he literally took the fight on a few hours notice. It was a losing effort against the up-and-coming Diego Lopes (U-DEC), but it was still an excellent effort and a great story. Ige has fallen into more of a gatekeeper role in the Featherweight division, and he's at risk of losing his No. 14 ranking this weekend. "50K" has dropped five of his last eight bouts. His last win came in February 2024, when he knocked out Andre Fili in the first round.
Ige is 18-8-0 in his career, and he has a very balanced resume when it comes to the method of victory. The 33-year-old has six knockouts, five submissions, and seven decisions. He is a black belt in BJJ, as well as a brown belt in Judo. The American is landing 0.99 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 26% clip while defending 59% of opposing attempts. In terms of his striking, Ige is averaging 3.70 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.51 strikes per minute. Ige has never been finished in his professional career, with all eight losses going to the judges' scorecards.
Bottom Line
This is a fantastic, under-the-radar tilt on Saturday's card, and we should be in for a great bout between Lerone Murphy and Dan Ige. The sports betting market doesn't necessarily agree that this fight will be close, as Murphy is priced as a sizable -285 moneyline favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook. Ige comes back at +230 to return to the win column, following a loss to Diego Lopes in June.
While I think we're in for a good fight here, I fully expect Lerone Murphy to take care of business. And, being that Dan Ige has never been finished in his career (all eight losses by decision), I anticipate it going the full distance. I'm taking the chalk option to say that Murphy wins by points.
Two main metrics stand out to me. First, Murphy has done a very good job at not getting hit in the octagon. His strike defense is 60%, which means only 40% of his opponents' strikes are landing. Neither of his recent opponents, Edson Barboza (U-DEC) and Josh Culibao (U-DEC), eclipsed a 40% success rate with their strikes.
The other notable statistic is that Ige's takedown defense is a vulnerability. He's fending off only 59% of opposing takedown attempts. If Murphy wants to, he can level change and take this fight to the canvas. While they say top control doesn't factor into a decision, we all know it's easy to steal a round if you're on top of your opponent for the majority of a round. Murphy has been active in the takedown department, landing seven of them in his last two bouts. Give me the Englishman to remain undefeated, and to do so by decision.