UFC 308 Odds & Picks: Robert Whittaker vs. Khamzat Chimaev (2024)
The UFC is back in the United Arab Emirates with another banger fight card. The featherweight champion, Ilia Topuria, will defend his belt for the first time against Max Holloway. Khamzat Chimaev is returning against Robert Whittaker in the co-main event in the middleweight division. Number-one-ranked contender Magomed Ankalaev is also fighting Aleksandar Rakic in the lightweight division in a matchup that sends the winner to a title shot. The prelims begin at noon EST, and the main card starts at 2 p.m.
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UFC 308: Robert Whittaker vs. Khamzat Chimaev
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Robert Whittaker (+200)
Robert Whittaker is 27-7 as a professional and is 17-5 in the UFC. He has been with the organization since 2012 when he won The Ultimate Fighter. His last fight was a first-round knockout victory over Ikram Aliskerov in June. He beat Paulo Costa via unanimous decision in February.
He lands 4.58 significant strikes and absorbs 3.44 significant strikes per minute with 59% strike defense. Whittaker averages 0.80 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and has defended 82% of takedowns in his UFC career.
Khamzat Chimaev (-245)
Khamzat Chimaev is 13-0 as a professional and has won seven times since joining the UFC in 2020. His last fight was in October 2023 against Kamaru Usman. Chimaev won via majority decision after one judge scored it a draw.
He lands 5.72 significant strikes and absorbs 3.46 significant strikes per minute with 58% accuracy. Chimaev averages 3.99 takedowns landed per 15 minutes with 46% accuracy. He has defended 100% of takedowns in the UFC and averages 2.7 submissions attempted per 15 minutes.
Prediction
Chimaev is going to be tested more than ever in this fight. He has fought most of his fights in the welterweight division but has struggled to make weight consistently. Middleweight is probably a natural weight class for Chimaev, and this will be his toughest challenge in this division. Whittaker could be the best fighter in middleweight history to not hold a title. He won the interim belt in 2017, but that does not count.
Whittaker is an exceptional kickboxer with solid wrestling and lots of experience. His wrestling may not be good enough to compete with Chimaev. He is a world-class grappler and will pressure Whittaker immediately. He can get Whittaker to the mat but may not land much damage. Whittaker has the grappling defense to survive on the mat against Chimaev, but I do not believe he can return to his feet once taken down. Chimaev has all the advantages on the mat but could be in trouble when standing. Whittaker's kickboxing is dangerous, but he does not usually finish opponents early. He has six knockout victories in the UFC, with three in the first round. He went to a decision 13 times in the UFC, and Chimaev has the chin to survive Whittaker's best shots. Chimaev could finish this with ground and pound, but I expect Whittaker to survive and compete for all three rounds.