UFC 308 Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)
UFC 308 gets underway early on Saturday from Yas Island in the United Arab Emirates, and you're not going to want to miss this card featuring five ranked bouts. There's a myriad of ways to get in on the action, including heading to the prop sheet. Below I've listed my top three props and analysis for UFC 308.
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UFC 308 Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Ilia Topuria (-250) vs. Max Holloway (+205)
All roads lead to a title fight in the Featherweight division, where Ilia Topuria will look to make his first title defense against Max Holloway. Topuria has climbed to a -250 moneyline favorite, while the current BMF belt holder is +205 to secure Featherweight gold.
We have a potential five-round fight featuring Max Holloway, and the betting market is suggesting that he will land under 90 total significant strikes. That's crazy to me. "Blessed" Max Holloway has the silkiest hands in the promotion, and he uses them at an excessive rate. He's landing 7.17 significant strikes per minute at a 48% success rate.
Holloway has landed at least 102 significant strikes in 12 of his last 13 contests! Ilia Topuria is electric and favored to win this fight, but hardly anyone has been able to escape the elite boxing of Holloway. Holloway boasts an 84% takedown defense rate, so as long as he's able to stay upright and work his game plan, he should clear this mark with ease.
Bet: Max Holloway Over 88.5 Significant Strikes Landed (-115)
Robert Whittaker (+210) vs. Khamzat Chimaev (-258)
The co-main event is a highly-anticipated Middleweight clash, where Khamzat Chimaev returns to the octagon after a one-year layoff. He'll take on Robert Whittaker, who is riding a two-fight winning streak. Chimaev's an overwhelming favorite, sitting at -258 on the moneyline. "The Reaper" comes back at +210 to secure his third straight victory.
Not many people rag doll Robert Whittaker and I don't expect that to start this weekend in Abu Dhabi. Even though Chimaev is a high-level wrestler, I think this is a great spot to lock in his under-on takedowns. Whittaker has only been taken down 3+ times twice in his UFC career, and they were both against Yoel Romero (4 TD landed, 3 TD landed) in 2017 and 2018. That means he's 20-22 to stay under this number of 2.5 takedowns in the UFC. The Australian boasts an excellent 82% takedown defense rate in his career.
On the flip side, Chimaev typically rides his opponents well and keeps them on the canvas. So, even if he does land one or two takedowns, he may just rack up the ground control time, rather than amass a high number of takedowns. So far in his seven-fight career in the UFC, he has only cleared the 2.5-takedown threshold once. Give me the under.
Bet: Khamzat Chimaev Under 2.5 Takedowns Landed (-115)
Shara Magomedov (-162) vs. Armen Petrosyan (+136)
Saturday's main card gets underway with a banger in the Middleweight division, as Shara Magomedov puts his undefeated 14-0-0 record on the line against Armen Petrosyan. Magomedov is a sizable -162 moneyline favorite to improve to 15-0-0, while his Armenian counterpart is a +136 underdog.
Both of these men are Muay Thai fighters who prefer to keep the fight vertical. I'm actually stunned that the under for this Petrosyan prop is plus-money. I'll say that he does not land a takedown in this three-round bout. Petrosyan is very inactive in terms of his wrestling, landing only 0.22 takedowns per 15 minutes. In six UFC tilts, he only has one successful takedown, and it came two contests ago. His takedown success rate is just 33%. Meanwhile, Magomedov is fending off 71% of opposing takedown attempts.
I mean, of course Petrosyan may try to work in a takedown attempt or two, but that simply has not been his style up to this point. He's a kickboxer and Muay Thai brawler who keeps his fights upright. I expect these two 185-pounders to stand in there and kickbox for 15 minutes... or less. Give me this under 0.5 takedowns landed for Petrosyan.
Bet: Armen Petrosyan Under 0.5 Takedowns Landed (+110)