UFC 309 Odds & Picks: Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig (2024)
Two legends of MMA make their return this weekend for UFC 309. Jon "Bones" Jones is returning to the octagon to defend his Heavyweight Title against Stipe Miocic in Madison Square Garden. Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler will rematch in the co-main event in the lightweight division. The prelims begin at 6 p.m. EST, and the main card starts at 10 p.m.
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UFC 309: Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Bo Nickal (-1200)
Bo Nickal is 6-0 as a professional and 3-0 in the UFC. He won on the Contender Series twice by first-round submission. Dana White wanted to see more from him, so he booked him another fight before rewarding him with a contract. His latest fight was a submission victory over Cody Brundage in April.
Nickal averages 1.64 significant strikes landed and 0.50 significant strikes absorbed per minute. Nickal averages 7.46 takedowns landed per 15 minutes with 50% accuracy.
Paul Craig (+750)
Paul "Bearjew" Craig is 17-8-1 as a professional and 9-8-1 in the UFC. He moved to middleweight from light heavyweight in 2023 and has gone 1-2 since the transition. His latest fight was a loss to Caio Borralho via knockout in May.
Craig lands 2.45 significant strikes and absorbs 2.97 significant strikes per minute. He averages 1.68 takedowns landed per 15 minutes with 20% accuracy. He has defended 37% of takedowns in the UFC.
Prediction
It is the most interesting for Nickal thus far in his young career. He has run through some lesser talent in the middleweight division, and Craig is a step up in competition. Nickal was a three-time NCAA Division One National Champion wrestler at Penn State, where he went 120-3. He is becoming one of MMA’s most feared grapplers and is improving in other areas.
Paul Craig has not looked great since moving down to middleweight. He is 36 and will turn 37 at the end of the month, and is now cutting more weight. Fighters usually tend to move up in weight class near the end of their careers because cutting weight becomes more difficult, but Craig has made weight four times at middleweight since transitioning. He has looked more drained, though, and has been finished in his last two fights.
Craig will be looking for submissions throughout this fight. He has 13 submission victories in his career, including six in the UFC. Craig likes to fight off his back because of this, and his striking is not very good. He is a stiff striker and has not shown improvement in recent fights. Nickal will take him down, and Craig will probably accept it willingly. Craig finished Jamahal Hill and Magomed Ankalaev, but that was three years ago. Nickal should dominate on the feet but be extra cautious on the mat with Craig underneath him. Craig can lose every second of the fight until he catches his opponent in a submission, sometimes at the last second.
Nickal needs to gain back control as quickly as possible. He will be safe there from any Craig submission attempt, and that is the easiest way to win this fight. Craig lost to Brendan Allen by rear naked choke in November 2023, and I think Nickal will do the same to him on Saturday.
Bet: Bo Nickal To Win by Submission (+180)