UFC 309 Odds & Picks: Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler (2024)
We have a loaded UFC 309 card on Saturday night in New York, and all roads lead to a Heavyweight title fight between Jon Jones (C) and Stipe Miocic (#8). Just prior to the main event is a banger in the Lightweight division, where Charles Oliveira (#2) squares off against Michael Chandler (#7). Let's dive into each fighter's recent history and wrap things up with my betting analysis on the 155-pound bout.
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UFC 309: Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Charles Oliveira (34-10-0, 1 NC)
At 35 years of age, it appears that Charles Oliveira is still performing near the top of his game. He's the second-ranked challenger in a stacked Lightweight division, looking up at only (C) Islam Makhachev and (#1) Arman Trasrukyan. Speaking of those two, they're the only brawlers who have issued "Do Bronx" a loss in his last 14 fights, beating him by submission (Arm Triangle) and decision (split), respectively. Oliveira's most recent win, a knockout (Punches) against Beneil Dariush, is in between the two losses. It's also important to note that this will be the second meeting between Oliveira and Michael Chandler after the Brazilian knocked out "Iron Mike" at UFC 262 in May 2021.
Stylistically, Oliveira is extremely versatile, as his 34 professional wins break down to 21 submissions, 10 knockouts, and three decisions. Speaking of submissions, he's throwing an inflated 2.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Sticking with the ground game, Oliveira is landing 2.17 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 40% success rate while fending off 55% of opposing attempts. As for the striking, the former champ is landing 3.39 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.20 strikes per minute.
Betting Profile: Michael Chandler (23-8-0)
Meanwhile, Michael Chandler is set to make the walk for the first time in two years, as he's spent the last 24 months trying to book a fight with Conor McGregor. That has obviously fallen through, setting up this rematch with Charles Oliveira. Chandler desperately needs a victory, as he's dropped three of his last four fights. The lone win came against Tony Ferguson (KO/TKO - Kick) in May 2022, while the defeats were at the hands of Oliveira (KO/TKO - Punch), Justin Gaethje (U-DEC), and Dustin Poirier (SUB - Rear Naked Choke), most recently.
"Iron Mike" is landing 4.89 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.58 strikes per minute. As for his wrestling, Chandler is averaging 2.17 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 38% success rate. He's defending 71% of opposing takedown attempts. As for his accolades, Chandler is a black belt in 10th planet jiu-jitsu. He's logged 23 professional wins, racking up 11 knockouts, seven submissions, and five decision victories.
Bottom Line
This will be a rematch between these two lightweight stars, and Charles Oliveira is a sizable -245 moneyline favorite to improve to 2-0 against Michael Chandler. The seventh-ranked Chandler comes back at +200 to get his hand raised.
I really have no interest in backing Michael Chandler against any Lightweight who is a serious contender. "Iron Mike" has failed to show up every time he has stepped up in competition, and I'm expecting the same result this time.
However, I can't lay the -245 juice with Oliveira, although it would make a nice parlay leg to knock off some of the vig. Let's go the chalk route and play to Oliveira's strength, which is his wrestling and ground game. Give me the Brazilian to win by submission. Oliveira has amassed 21 professional submission wins, which accounts for 61.8% of his total wins in the cage.
"Do Bronx" did land a takedown in the first tilt between the two, going 1/2 (50%) on takedown attempts. I expect him to take Chandler to the canvas and go to work throughout this fight. Oliveira is landing 2.17 takedowns per 15 minutes while attempting 2.8 submissions per 15 minutes. He's constantly looking to stick his opponent with a submission, and I think he'll find one against an inferior opponent like Chandler.
Bet: Charles Oliveira To Win By Submission (+130)