UFC 309 Odds & Picks: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic (2024)
UFC 309 is slated for this Saturday night from Madison Square Garden in New York, New York. The headliner features a Heavyweight title fight between Jon Jones (champion) and Stipe Miocic (No. 8). Below I'll dive into each fighter's recent form, touch on their key statistics and metrics and wrap things up with my betting analysis and favorite wager.
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UFC 309 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Jon Jones (27-1-0, 1 No Contest)
The legendary Jon Jones will make the walk for the first time in 20 months on Saturday, with his most recent tilt coming against Ciryl Gane in March of 2023. Jones made light work of the Frenchman, tapping him out (Guillotine Choke) in the first round. This was already after a three-year layoff, so the aging Jones has missed plenty of time in the octagon due to injury issues. Nonetheless, he's still an absolute savage, and he's rattled off five straight wins since a no-contest against Daniel Cormier back in July 2017.
From a stylistic perspective, Jones can do a little bit of everything. His 27 professional wins have seen him rack up 10 knockouts, 10 decisions and seven submissions. The 37-year-old is averaging 1.93 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 45% clip while fending off 95% of opposing takedown attempts. As for his striking, Jones is dishing out 4.29 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.22 strikes per minute. In terms of accolades, the American-born brawler is a black belt in Gaidojutsu, as well as a purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
Betting Profile: Stipe Miocic (20-4-0)
Like Jones, Stipe Miocic has been relatively inactive in recent years. You have to go back to March 2021 to find his last fight, a losing effort (KO/TKO - Punch) at the hands of Francis Ngannou. That was a title fight, and it was Miocic's eighth consecutive time fighting for Heavyweight gold. He went 2-1 in a trilogy against Daniel Cormier, as well as beating Francis Ngannou (KO/TKO - Punch) in the first meeting between the two. While he hasn't been fighting much since the turn of the decade, it's important to remember that the Ohio native owns the record for most title defenses at the Heavyweight ranks (four).
Miocic has a wrestling background and is a purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He's somewhat active in the takedown department, landing 1.86 takedowns per 15 minutes. The 42-year-old is landing his takedown attempts at a 34% success rate while defending a modest 68% of opposing attempts. But make no mistake, Miocic makes his money on the feet, where he's racked up 15 of his 20 professional wins via the knockout. He's landing 4.82 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.82 significant strikes.
Bottom Line
I don't know too many people who are giving Miocic a chance in this fight. That includes the oddsmakers at DraftKings Sportsbook, who currently have the challenger priced at +455 to win back the Heavyweight strap. Meanwhile, Jon Jones enters as a -625 Moneyline favorite, making him the second-largest favorite on the card to Bo Nickal (-1100 vs. Paul Craig).
From a betting perspective, I think the best way to wager on this main event is to take the over on 2.5 rounds at +105. Right off the bat, I believe that it's fair to question each fighter's knockout ability as they are clearly past their respective prime.
I am mostly in alignment with the market in thinking Jones takes care of business against the 41-year-old Miocic. With that said, Jones has only one first-round finish in his last 10 bouts. The rest have each seen the third round.
The lone exception was Jones' recent submission victory over Ciryl Gane, who we have now come to learn has absolutely zero ground game. That's not the case with Miocic, who grew up wrestling and boasts a purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. I expect Jones to dispose of Miocic at some point, but that point will likely be after the 12.5-minute mark. Let's take a flier on the over with a plus-money payout.
Bet: Over 2.5 Rounds (+105)