UFC 309 Odds & Picks: Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop (2024)
This weekend's UFC 309 card from MSG in New York, NY is littered with thrilling fights. The main card opens up with a Lightweight banger between two unranked brawlers in Mauricio Ruffy and James Llontop. Let's dive into this tilt and I'll finish with my favorite bet for the bout.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
UFC 309: Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop Betting Guide
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Mauricio Ruffy (10-1-0)
Brazil's Mauricio Ruffy is set to make the walk for the third time in his UFC career, assuming you count his Dana White Contender Series victory back in October 2023. It was a knockout victory (Punches) against Raimond Magomedaliev in the third round, where the Brazilian out-struck his opponent 70-60. Technically, Ruffy's UFC debut came in his last bout, where he added another knockout win (Punches), this time taking care of Jamie Mullarkey late in the first round. Ruffy's nickname is "One Shot," which I'd say is an excellent moniker considering all 10 of his victories have come via the KO.
Statistically, Ruffy is landing 4.88 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.80 significant strikes. He has a strike defense rate of 59%, meaning 41% of his opposition's strikes are landing. As for his wrestling, the 28-year-old secures 0.0 takedowns per 15 minutes. He is defending 100% of opposing attempts.
Betting Profile: James Llontop (14-4-0)
Meanwhile, it has been a rough stretch of fights for Peru's James Llontop. The 25-year-old is 14-4-0 in his professional career, but he has suffered two consecutive losses in the UFC. Those defeats came at the hands of Chris Padilla (SUB - Rear Naked Choke) and Viacheslav Borshchev (S-DEC), more recently. As for the latest loss, Llontop was out-struck 96-93, while going 1/1 in takedown defense. The breakdown of Llontop's victories include him accumulating seven knockouts, six decisions, and one submission.
From a statistical standpoint, Llontop is a high-volume striker, landing 5.38 significant strikes per minute. He's absorbing 3.97 strikes per minute, and his opponents are landing those blows at a 38% success rate. In terms of his wrestling, the Peruvian has a 54% takedown defense rate, and he's averaging 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes. Prior to the loss to Borshchev, Llontop had conceded five takedowns in his two prior bouts.
Bottom Line
This main card opener should be a war, but Mauricio Ruffy finds himself as a massive (-900) moneyline favorite. James Llontop comes back at (+600) to get his hand raised.
There's a great saying in life that goes, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." I believe we can shoehorn the adage into this betting analysis, because I'm taking Ruffy to improve to 11-1-0, and pick up his 11th professional knockout. It's the chalk method of victory for the fight, but it truly feels like the best way to attack the contest from a betting angle.
The aspect of this matchup that sticks out to me is that James Llontop doesn't possess any ground game. He's averaging 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes. Unless he somehow picked up a wrestling background during this camp, he's in for 15 minutes (or less in this case) on the feet with an up-and-coming savage in the Lightweight division. Llontop hasn't been knocked out in his career, but he is riding a two-fight slide. I think the sports betting market is spot on with this one, I'm riding with Ruffy to secure another knockout.