UFC 309 Odds & Picks: Sleepers & Longshot Bets (2024)
Two legends of MMA make their return this weekend for UFC 309. Jon "Bones" Jones is returning to the octagon to defend his Heavyweight Title against Stipe Miocic in Madison Square Garden. Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler will rematch in the co-main event in the lightweight division. The prelims begin at 6 p.m. EST, and the main card starts at 10 p.m.
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UFC 309 Longshot Prop Bet (2024)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Veronica Hardy (-135) vs. Eduarda Moura (+114)
I gave out Moura in my prelims article, which you can find here. Moura has the wrestling advantage and will look to control Hardy on the mat. Moura won her debut via ground and pound after landing three takedowns. She could not finish Denise Gomes in her second UFC fight, but Gomes has not been knocked out since her first fight. Moura landed five takedowns but could not land enough offense to win on the scorecards.
Veronica Hardy has not been knocked out since her first UFC fight in 2016. Her only loss by knockout was to Ashlee Evans-Smith via elbows. Hardy lost each fight in the UFC when she had fewer takedowns than her opponent. Moura will land more takedowns than her, and landing heavy ground and pound is not out of the question.
Bet: Eduarda Moura To Win By Knockout (+800)
Bo Nickal (-1200) vs. Paul Craig (+700)
I wrote an in-depth preview of this fight, which is here. I gave out Bo Nickal to win by submission, and I will call my shot and predict the third round. Nickal was extremely patient in his last fight against Cody Brundage. He took his time and did not overlook Brundage, a solid middleweight fighter. Paul Craig will be a step up in competition and a bigger fighter.
Craig is two inches taller than Nickal and fought in the light heavyweight division for most of his career. He is slick off his back and is one of the most dangerous submission artists in the UFC. I think Nickal will take his time and remain cautious against Craig, who will likely let Nickal take him down. Craig loves to work off his back and has locked up numerous submissions from the bottom position.
The key to this fight for Nickal will be his strength. He will get takedowns against Craig, but will he be able to move to dominant positions easily? Nickal likely has a tougher time against the bigger-framed Craig, but the weight cut has been hard on Craig. He will get drained the longer this fight goes, especially if they wrestle the entire time. The easiest way for Nickal to end this fight is by taking Craig's back and finding a choke, but he has to find a way to get there from Craig's guard.
Bet: Bo Nickal Wins in Round Three (+600)