UFC 309 Odds & Picks: Viviane Araujo vs. Karine Silva (2024)
Two legends of MMA make their return this weekend for UFC 309. Jon "Bones" Jones is returning to the octagon to defend his Heavyweight Title against Stipe Miocic in Madison Square Garden. Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler will rematch in the co-main event in the lightweight division. The prelims begin at 6 p.m. EST, and the main card starts at 10 p.m.
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UFC 309: Viviane Araujo vs. Karine Silva
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Viviane Araujo (+240)
Viviane Araujo is 12-6 as a professional and 6-5 in the UFC since joining in 2019. Her last fight was a loss to Natalia Silva in February. She won via unanimous decision against Jennifer Maia before that.
She averages 4.11 significant strikes landed and 4.96 strikes absorbed per minute. Araujo averages 1.76 takedowns landed per 15 minutes with 40% takedown accuracy.
Karine Silva (-298)
Karine "Killer" Silva is 18-4 as a professional and 4-0 in the UFC. She won her fight on the Contender Series in 2019 via submission and then won her first three fights via submission. Her latest fight was a decision victory over Ariane da Silva in April.
She lands 2.67 significant strikes and absorbs 3.12 significant strikes per minute. Silva averages 3.59 takedowns per 15 minutes, with 72% accuracy.
Prediction
Both women have strong grappling skills, but Silva is the better wrestler. Araujo has never been submitted in her career, but I expect Silva to test her when on the mat. Silva has landed a takedown in the first round of every fight in the UFC, and I expect her to do the same against Araujo, who has 78% takedown defense. Silva showed she could control her opponent on the mat in her last fight. She landed five takedowns over three rounds and racked up seven and a half minutes of control time.
Araujo is a solid fighter but is more of a gatekeeper at this point in her career. She is 37 years old, while Silva is 30. When fighters with a seven-year age difference face each other, the younger fighter wins 66% of the time.
Both women have solid striking, but Silva may have an advantage due to her grappling ability. A strong wrestling attack should help Silva while striking, especially in the clinch, where she can use her trips. Araujo is a solid boxer and is good inside the clinch in certain matchups, but Silva probably has the edge in this one. Araujo has too many weapons to worry about with Silva and will constantly worry about getting taken down while striking. I expect Araujo to perform solidly, but too many things are against her in this matchup. She is 37, turning 38 next month, and has lost three of her last five fights. Silva getting a finish would be impressive, but she likely controls Araujo on the mat for most of the 15 minutes and takes it on the scorecards unanimously.
Bet: Karine Silva To Win by Decision (+100)