UFC 310 Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)
There's no shortage of ways to get in on the action for Saturday night's UFC 310 card from Las Vegas, Nevada. Below I've listed three props that I've locked in. Let's dive into the picks and analysis, and have a profitable night on the canvas!
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UFC 310 Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Alexandre Pantoja (-265) vs. Kai Asakura (+215)
All roads lead to a title fight in the Flyweight division, as champion Alexandre Pantoja looks to make his third title defense against Kai Asakura. The unranked challenger is +215 to secure the belt in his UFC debut, while the champ sits at -265 to win his seventh straight fight.
I am expecting a longer bout between these two flyweights, so I think there will be plenty of time for Pantoja to amass 64+ significant strikes against his challenger. Asakura has seen four of his last five fights go into the third round, and three of those five tilts have gone the distance. For Pantoja, he's becoming somewhat of a decision merchant, as five of his last seven fights have gone to the judges' scorecards. In terms of the striking numbers, The Brazilian is landing 4.41 significant strikes per minute at a 49% clip. Give me Pantoja to eclipse this total of 63.5 significant strikes.
Bet: Alexandre Pantoja Over 63.5 Significant Strikes Landed (-115)
Shavkat Rakhmonov (-375) vs. Ian Machado Garry (+295)
The co-main event should be an absolute banger in the Welterweight division, as two undefeated brawlers square off. #3 Shavkat Rakhmonov (18-0-0) is priced at -375 to retain his "0", while #7 Ian Machado Garry comes back at +295 to stay perfect and improve to 15-0-0.
Rakhmonov is 18-0-0 with a perfect 100% finish rate. During his professional career, he's collected 10 submissions and eight knockouts. He's averaging 1.49 takedowns per 15 minutes, and landing them at a 29% success rate. I think the Kazakhstan-born brawler will use his wrestling in this contest to avoid trading punches with Garry, who has seven knockouts to his name. Garry's takedown defense could be a bit of a weakness, as he's fending off a modest 69% of opposing takedown attempts. I'm locking in Rakhmonov to register two-plus takedowns in this five-round co-main event.
Bet: Shavkat Rakhmonov Over 1.5 Takedowns Landed (-165)
Bryce Mitchell (-900) vs. Kron Gracie (+600)
The second fight on the main card pits #13 Bryce Mitchell against Kron Gracie in a Featherweight fight at 145 Lbs. Mitchell's a massive -900 moneyline favorite to get back in the win column, while Gracie comes back at +600 to get his hand raised.
There's one colossal statistic that stands out to me in regard to Gracie, and it's that he's absorbing 6.82 significant strikes per minute. I mean, this guy is just getting beat up when the fight is upright. His last two opponents have out-struck him 215-118 in 30 combined minutes of action.
Even though Mitchell is a wrestler, I anticipate this fight staying vertical, mainly because Gracie is one of the last guys that you want to go to the mat with. He's 5-2-0 in his career, and all five professional victories have come via submission. The best path to victory for Mitchell, who's landing a modest 2.30 significant strikes per minute, would be to stay on the feet and pound on his unranked competitor.
Bet: Bryce Mitchell Over 46.5 Significant Strikes Landed (-115)