UFC 311 Odds & Picks: Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano (2025)
UFC 311 is littered with high-leverage fights, and this Lightweight bout between (No. 9) Beneil Dariush and (No. 10) Renato Moicano should be an absolute banger on the main card. Below I'll touch on each fighter's path to this tilt, before wrapping things up with the odds and my favorite bet for the fight.
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UFC 311: Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano Betting Guide
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Beneil Dariush (22-6-1)
Just how stacked is the Lightweight division in the UFC? Well, Beneil Dariush is now ranked ninth after enduring two straight losses to Charles Oliveira (KO/TKO - Punches) and Arman Tsarukyan (KO/TKO - Punch). The 35-year-old American will now have to prove he's not sliding into a gatekeeper role, as he attempts to break back into the win column on Saturday night. Dariush's most recent win came back in October 2022, when he bested Mateusz Gamrot (U-DEC), out-striking him 59-33.
Dariush did get taken down four times in the winning effort against Gamrot, which has dropped his takedown defense rate to 80% in his UFC career. On the offensive side, he's averaging 1.90 successful takedowns per 15 minutes, landing them at a 34% clip. In terms of striking, the southpaw is landing 3.78 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.65 strikes per minute.
Betting Profile: Renato Moicano (20-5-1)
Brazil's Renato Moicano is quickly becoming a household name in the UFC, thanks to his entertaining fights and thrilling post-fight interviews. Money Moicano is currently in the midst of a four-fight winning streak, where he's handled Brad Riddell (SUB - Rear Naked Choke), Drew Dober (U-DEC), Jalin Turner (KO/TKO - Punches), and Benoit Saint-Denis (KO-TKO - Stoppage), most recently. This will be Moicano's biggest step up in competition, as he attempts to break into the serious contending positions of the Lightweight division.
Stylistically, Moicano is most comfortable on the canvas. He's a black belt in both Brazilian jiu-jitsu and Muay Thai. His breakdown of wins over his 20-5-1 professional career includes 10 submissions, eight decisions and a pair of knockouts. The Brazilian is landing 4.42 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.60 strikes. In terms of his wrestling, Moicano is landing 1.87 takedowns per 15 minutes. He's landing them at a 44% success rate while fending off 72% of opposing takedown attempts.
Bottom Line
The sports betting market expects Beneil Dariush's losing streak to continue on Saturday night, as the 35-year-old enters this tilt as a decently-sized +140 underdog. The upward-trending Renato Moicano comes back at -166 on the Moneyline. He's looking for his fifth straight victory in the UFC octagon.
I'd love to try and find a way to back Dariush at plus-money here, but I'm just not sure I see the path to him winning. Instead, I'll lay the juice and ride with the rising Renato Moicano to get his hand raised.
The Brazilian, in my opinion, has proven he's developing into a well-rounded brawler in the octagon. Moicano's amid a 6-1 run in the UFC, racking up five finishes (three submissions, two knockouts) during the stretch. Interestingly, the 35-year-old's only two professional knockout wins are in his last two fights, so even as he's reaching his older years in the fighting game, he's still finding ways to evolve.
Meanwhile, Dariush has been knocked out in two straight fights. And, while the defeats came against top-tier opposition in Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan, a couple of first-round knockout losses are never a good thing to have on your resume. I think it's best to ride with the favorite, who has a ton of momentum, rather than try and take a flier on a potentially downward-sliding Dariush.
Bet: Renato Moicano Moneyline (-166)