UFC 311 Odds & Picks: Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano (2025)
The first pay-per-view (PPV) of 2025 is here and the card is stacked! There are two title fights scheduled for the Lightweight and Bantamweight titles. Merab Dvalishvili will put his belt on the line against Umar Nurmagomedov in the co-main event. There is some breaking news regarding the main event, though.
Arman Tsarukyan has pulled out due to an injury and will be replaced by Renato Moicano, who was supposed to fight Beneil Dariush. This card is already stacked, and this adds to the excitement. Islam Makhachev and Moicano will take this fight on one-day notice for the Lightweight belt.
The card will take place in the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California, with the main card starting at 10 p.m. EST.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
UFC 311: Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano Betting Preview
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Islam Makhachev (-950)
Islam Makhachev is on a 14-fight winning streak and has defended his belt three times. His most recent win was a submission victory over Dustin Poirier in June. He has finished three out of four fights for the title and is the No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC.
Makhachev lands 2.65 significant strikes and absorbs 1.54 significant strikes per minute. Makhachev lands with 59% accuracy and defends 61% of significant strikes. He averages 3.19 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, with 53% accuracy, and has defended 90% of takedowns.
Renato Moicano (+590)
Renato Moicano has won four consecutive bouts and six of his last seven fights. He is 20-5-1 as a professional and 12-5 in the UFC since 2014. His latest victory was a second-round knockout versus Benoit Saint-Denis.
Moicano lands 4.42 significant strikes and absorbs 3.60 significant strikes per minute. Moicano lands with 49% accuracy and defends 60% of strikes. He averages 1.87 takedowns landed per 15 minutes with 44% accuracy and has defended 72% of takedowns.
Prediction
The odds reflect the advantage Islam Makhachev has on short notice. He has a wrestling advantage against every fighter in the division and an even bigger advantage when his opponent has not had a training camp to prepare for him. Moicano is likely prepared to wrestle against Beneil Dariush. He is not on the same level as Makhachev.
The short notice nature of this fight could give Moicano an advantage in terms of Makhachev not being able to prepare for Moicano’s striking style. He also has a personality that fans adore, and he will get his money. "Money" Moicano is vocal about what he wants, and that is money. I am sure the UFC will compensate him well for stepping up on short notice against the best fighter in the UFC.
Unfortunately, his chances of winning this fight are slim. Rafael dos Anjos took him down five times in March of 2022 and beat him via unanimous decision in a five-round fight. Makhachev will likely do the same thing to him but could find a submission despite Moicano's high-level grappling.
The bright side for Moicano is that he does not have to go through the gauntlet of lightweight contenders to earn a title shot. That is a lot of wear and tear avoided, but he does not get a full camp to prepare. Moicano is a solid striker and has dangerous elbows when in close range. Landing a big elbow and cutting Makhachev would be his best chance to win this fight, but it will be hard to get in that range. Makhachev will take him down or control him inside, as he has a clear strength advantage.
I think Makhachev utilizes his wrestling and finds the back of Moicano, which will likely lead to a choke.
Bet: Islam Makhachev to Win by Submission (+120)