UFC 311 Odds & Picks: Jiri Prochazka vs. Jamahal Hill (2025)
The first pay-per-view (PPV) of 2025 is here and the card is stacked. There are two title fights scheduled for the Lightweight and Bantamweight titles. Merab Dvalishvili will put his belt on the line against Umar Nurmagomedov in the co-main event. Islam Makhachev will battle Arman Tsarukyan for a second time, but this time in the main event for the title.
The event takes place in the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California, with the main card starting at 10:00 p.m. EST.
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UFC 311: Jiri Prochazka vs. Jamahal Hill Betting Guide
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jiri Prochazka (+110)
Jiri Prochazka is 30-5-1 as a professional and 4-2 in the UFC. His last fight was for the title against Alex Pereira in June, where he lost by knockout. He beat Aleksandar Rakic in April of last year via knockout.
Prochazka lands 5.38 significant strikes and absorbs 5.59 significant strikes per minute. He lands with 55% accuracy but defends 39% of significant strikes. He averages 0.72 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and has defended 68% of takedowns.
Jamahal Hill (-130)
Jamahal Hill is 12-2 (one no-contest) as a professional and 6-2 in the UFC. His last fight was for the title against Alex Pereira in April, losing via knockout. His latest win was for the UFC Light Heavyweight belt over Glover Teixeira in January 2023 via unanimous decision.
Hill lands 7.18 significant strikes and absorbs 3.51 significant strikes per minute. He lands with 54% accuracy and defends 46% of significant strikes. He has not landed a takedown in the UFC but has defended 73%.
Prediction
Two former Light Heavyweight champions will enter the octagon as the No. 2 and No. 3 ranked contenders in the division, but only one will be next in line for a title shot. Prochazka has a clear advantage in experience despite being over a year younger than Hill. Jamahal Hill does have more UFC experience than Prochazka, though. Wrestling is likely not going to factor into this fight unless Hill starts to hurt Prochazka on the feet. Hill will not initiate the wrestling but must be cautious because Prochazka will mix things up if necessary.
Jamahal Hill is a clean boxer with lots of power in his hands. He also has shown the ability to land volume. He landed 232 significant strikes (a record in the Light Heavyweight division) in his title victory over Glover Teixeira, which went five rounds. Prochazka cannot let Hill walk him down, or it could get ugly. Hill is a precise striker who will find the chin of Prochazka if he can fight his style.
Prochazka must force him to fight off his back foot and counterstrike. The counters could be dangerous, but they would have less power off his back foot. Prochazka is accurate and precise with his strikes but must dictate the pace and pressure of the fight. He has shown durability against some of the biggest light heavyweights and will likely have to do it again. Someone will get knocked out, and I trust the warrior mentality of Prochazka more than Hill's boxing power.
Bet: Jiri Prochazka (+110)