UFC 311 Odds & Picks: Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder (2025)
The UFC's first numbered event of the year is scheduled for Saturday night in Inglewood, CA. The UFC 311 main card opens up with a thriller in the Middleweight division between Kevin Holland and Reinier de Ridder. Let's check out each brawler's recent form and key statistics, before finishing up with the betting odds and my favorite wager for the fight.
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UFC 311: Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder Betting Guide
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Kevin Holland (26-12-0, 1 No Contest)
USA's Kevin Holland continues to be one of the promotion's most active fighters, and he's coming off of a three-fight year in 2024. The "Trailblazer" went 1-2, bookending a win over Michal Oleksiejczuk (SUB - Armbar) with losses to Michael Page (U-DEC) and Roman Dolidze (KO/TKO - Stoppage). This stretch is part of a larger 5-7 record, but a win on Saturday night could see the 32-year-old get another shot to crack back into the top 15 of the Middleweight division.
Statistically, Holland's biggest issue is his takedown defense, where he's fending off only 54% of opposing takedown attempts. He's landing only 0.83 takedowns per 15 minutes, with those coming at a 38% success rate. The Kung Fu and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt is much more comfortable on his feet, where he's landing 4.24 significant strikes per minute. He's absorbing only 3.21 strikes per minute.
Betting Profile: Reinier de Ridder (18-2-0)
The Netherlands' Reinier de Ridder is a past double-champion in the ONE Championship promotion, and now he's taking his shot in the UFC. The 34-year-old started his UFC career on a high note, submitting Gerald Meerschaert (SUB - Arm Triangle) in the third round of a November 2024 bout. Reinier de Ridder out-struck his opponent 38-30, while also securing five takedowns and 3:29 worth of ground control time. "The Dutch Knight" is 18-2-0 in his professional career, with the wins coming by 12 submissions, four knockouts and two decisions.
Both of de Ridder's losses came against Anatoly Malykhin in ONE Championship - both knockouts in title fights. However, the first was at 225 pounds but the second was at 205 pounds.
Bottom Line
From a sports betting perspective, this is the tightest fight in terms of Moneyline pricing on Saturday night's card. Kevin Holland's the slimmest of favorites at -112, while Reinier de Ridder comes back at -108 to secure the victory.
When Holland loses a fight, most of the time it's due to his inability to defend takedowns. His takedown defense rate in the UFC is just 54%. He's also notorious for being unable to get back up off the canvas, which allows his opponents to amass ground control time.
Well, this profiles as a fight where Holland will have his hands full with a bonafide submission artist in de Ridder. The Dutch brawler has accumulated 12 submissions in 20 professional fights, including locking in an arm-triangle win over Gerald Meerschaert in his UFC debut. He landed five takedowns in that bout, which has inflated his UFC average takedowns per 15 minutes metric to 6.39.
I think we're going to see de Ridder spam takedowns here. Being that Holland continuously fails to address his takedown defense, I don't see why he won't find success. Give me de Ridder on the Moneyline.
Bet: Reinier de Ridder Moneyline (-108)