UFC 311 Odds & Picks: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (2025)
The first pay-per-view (PPV) of 2025 is here and the card is stacked. There are two title fights scheduled for the Lightweight and Bantamweight titles. Merab Dvalishvili will put his belt on the line against Umar Nurmagomedov in the co-main event. Islam Makhachev will battle Arman Tsarukyan for a second time, but this time in the main event for the title.
The event takes place in the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California, with the main card starting at 10:00 p.m. EST.
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UFC 311: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov Betting Guide
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Merab Dvalishvili (+230)
Merab Dvalishvili is on an 11-fight winning streak and won the UFC Bantamweight title over Sean O'Malley in September via unanimous decision. He beat Henry Cejudo, Petr Yan and Jose Aldo before winning the belt, all via unanimous decision.
Dvalishvili lands 4.35 significant strikes and absorbs 2.31 significant strikes per minute with 42% accuracy. He defends 56% of significant strikes. He averages 6.09 takedowns landed per 15 minutes with 36% accuracy and has defended 80% of takedowns.
Umar Nurmagomedov (-285)
Umar Nurmagomedov is 18-0 as a professional and 6-0 in the UFC. His latest victory was a unanimous decision in August over Cory Sandhagen. He also beat Bekzat Almakhan unanimously in March of last year.
He lands 4.46 significant strikes and absorbs 1.36 significant strikes per minute. Nurmagomedov lands with 63% accuracy and defends the same percentage of strikes. Nurmagomedov averages 3.98 takedowns landed per 15 minutes with 50% accuracy and has never been taken down in the UFC.
Prediction
Merab Dvalishvili is a tricky fighter to prepare for because he is relentless with his pressure. Few people can mimic his nonstop pressure style, so Umar Nurmagomedov must adjust once he is in the octagon with Dvalishvili. The key for Nurmagomedov will be his wrestling ability. He has never been taken down in the UFC, but that does not mean Dvalishvili will not get him on the mat. How many times can he get him there, and can he hold him there? I do not think he will land enough takedowns to be effective against Nurmagomedov, which means this turns into a striking battle.
Nurmagomedov is the better striker between the two, especially from range. He will have to watch throwing kicks to the body or higher against Dvalishvili, who can catch them and turn them into takedowns. The key for Nurmagomedov is finding counterstrikes when Dvalishvili pressures him. Dvalishvili strikes the same way he wrestles: Relentlessly. Nurmagomedov must be ready to fight off his back foot and counter when he gets pressured or use his offensive wrestling to gain an advantageous position on the mat.
Neither guy has a problem taking a shot, so it will likely come down to the judges. Both men are coming off a five-round unanimous decision victory. Gassing out will not come into play in this fight. Nurmagomedov has the advantages in every aspect but the pressure. He should have the answers to win a decision over Dvalishvili.
Bet: Umar Nurmagomedov to Win by Decision (-135)