UFC 312 Picks & Predictions: Jake Matthews vs. Francisco Prado (2025)
UFC 312 is a loaded event, featuring a pair of title fights and a slew of brawlers from the Eastern Hemisphere. The main card opens up with Australia's Jake Matthews squaring off against Argentina’s Francisco Prado in a welterweight tilt. Below I'll touch on each fighter's recent form, dive into their key statistics and finish with my favorite way to bet this main card opener.
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UFC 312: Jake Matthews vs. Francisco Prado Betting Guide
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Jake Matthews (20-7-0)
For being just 30 years of age, Jake Matthews has quite the UFC resume already. He's been fighting in the promotion since June 2014, where he's amassed a 13-7 record across 20 fights. The Celtic Kid is 3-2 in his last five fights, and he's coming off of a winning effort against Phil Rowe (unanimous decision) back in June 2024. Matthews out-struck his opponent 66-34 in the bout, while also racking up 3:04 worth of ground control time with his one takedown.
Statistically, Matthews is averaging 3.38 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.54 strikes per minute. In terms of wrestling, he's somewhat active, landing 1.56 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 41% success rate. He's fending off a modest 64% of opposing takedown attempts. The Australian-born brawler is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He has eight submission wins in his career (five knockouts, seven decisions).
Betting Profile: Francisco Prado (12-2-0)
As for Argentina's Francisco Prado, he's set to appear in his fourth UFC fight on Saturday night. The young 22-year-old is 1-2 in his previous UFC tilts. His win came against Ottman Azaitar (TKO/KO - Punches) back in July 2023. The victory was bookended by losses to Jamie Mullarkey (unanimous decision) and Daniel Zellhuber (unanimous decision), more recently. Prado was out-struck 120-90 in the recent loss to Zellhuber, and neither fighter secured a takedown in the 15-minute affair.
Prado is a finishing machine, as he has six knockouts and six submissions in his 12-win career. In terms of his striking, he's landing 4.58 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing an inflated 5.66 strikes per minute. He's yet to land a takedown in the UFC, but his takedown defense rate is just 25%. The aforementioned Mullarkey took Prado down three times in his UFC debut in February 2023.
Bottom Line
This should be a fun main card opener on Saturday night, but the sports betting market sees Jake Matthews as a sizable -245 Moneyline favorite to win the bout. Francisco Prado, who's making his fourth UFC appearance, comes back at +200 to get his hand raised.
Prado is no stranger to being a big underdog, as he was roughly a +210 Moneyline dog last time out against Daniel Zellhuber. The Argentianian held his own in the fight but eventually lost via unanimous decision. While Jake Matthews is battle-tested with 20 fights in the UFC, I don't know if he's much more talented than Zellhuber. With a 2/1 payout, I think it's worth sprinkling on the up-and-coming Prado to win this bout in Matthews' backyard of New South Wales.
Prado has excellent MMA skills, as he has a 100% finish rate throughout his 12-2-0 MMA career. He's stuck six submissions in his MMA career, to go along with six knockouts. If you were to point to a weakness in Matthews' game, it'd be his pedestrian 64% takedown defense rate. Matthews has been taken down at least once in four out of his last six losses, so there's a clear path to victory for Prado, should he look to implement a wrestling-first approach. However, he still packs a powerful punch as well, so even if this fight stays upright, the 22-year-old can contend on the feet.
All things considered, I think this price of Matthews at -245 is a bit inflated. It's time to buy back and take a flier on the challenger. Let's ride with Prado to pull off the upset in Australia.
Bet: Francisco Prado Moneyline (+200)