UFC 312 Picks & Predictions: Justin Tafa vs. Tallison Teixeira (2025)
The UFC heads down under this weekend, as UFC 312 takes center stage of the sports landscape on Saturday night. Just prior to the two title fights on the main card, we have a Heavyweight clash between Justin Tafa and Tallison Teixeira. Let's check out each fighter's path to this point, before wrapping up with the odds and my best bet for this showdown at 265 Lbs.
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UFC 312: Justin Tafa vs. Tallison Teixeira Betting Guide
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Justin Tafa (7-4-0, 1NC)
Justin Tafa is set to make the walk to the UFC octagon for his 10th time on Saturday night, and he's rebounded following a 1-3 start in the promotion. He's since gone 3-1 with a no-contest, racking up knockout wins over Harry Hunsucker (Kick), Parker Porter (Punch), and Austen Lane (Punch). The New Zealander is coming off of a losing effort in his latest bout, where he dropped a unanimous decision to Karl Williams in March 2024. Tafa was out-struck 40-21 in the defeat, while also losing the takedown battle 7-0. He conceded 10:31 worth of ground control time, meaning he spent more than two-thirds of the fight on the mat.
Picking it back up with wrestling, Tafa's offensive wrestling approach is non-existent. He's averaging 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes. He is fending off 50% of opposing attempts. "Bad Man" is landing 4.09 significant strikes per minute at a 54% success rate, while absorbing 5.02 strikes per minute. Tafa's currently a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. However, it's worth noting that he's simply in there hunting knockouts, which is evident by the fact that all seven of his professional wins are by KO.
Betting Profile: Tallison Teixeira (7-0-0)
Meanwhile, we don't have a ton of data on Brazil's Tallison Teixeira, but we do know that he's a perfect 7-0 in his MMA career, boasting six knockouts and a submission victory. The 25-year-old is coming off of a Dana White Contender Series fight back in September 2024, where he knocked out Arthur Lopes in the first round. It was a high-volume fight despite it going only 1:57, as Teixeira out-struck his opponent 29-19 in the contest. Finally, it's worth mentioning that Teixeira is a massive guy, standing at 6' 7" with a reach of 83 inches.
Bottom Line
This should be a fun, yet short fight between these two heavyweight brawlers. Over at DraftKings Sportsbook, they have a -500 price tag for this fight to end by KO/TKO/DQ. So, someone's going to sleep. As for winning the bout, Brazil's Tallison Teixeira comes in as a slight -142 moneyline favorite, while Justin Tafa sits at +120 to get his hand raised.
I'm not sure who is going to win this fight. I lean toward Teixeira due to his massive reach advantage and edge in height. However, for a big man, Tafa is relatively athletic, and I think there's a chance that he's able to close the distance and do some damage. Plus, he'll have a home-cage advantage fighting relatively close to his native New Zealand.
With all of that being said, I think the best way to bet this fight is to head to the prop sheet. We can get "coin flip odds" on this fight to not see the second round. I'm going to lock that bet in, so we're essentially riding with the fight to end in the first round.
Both of these guys are knockout artists. Of their 14 combined victories, 13 are by knockout and one is by submission. Tafa has seven knockouts in his career, while the rest of those finishes belong to the young Teixeira. Tafa also doesn't do a great job at protecting himself, as his opponents are landing their strikes at a 53% success rate. That's a dangerous formula in a weight class at 265 Lbs. I think someone's going to sleep, and I think it'll happen earlier, rather than later. Let's take the fight not to start the second round at -110.
Bet: Fight To Start Second Round: No (-110)