Navigate

UFC 313 Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions (2025)

by |

Saturday night’s loaded UFC 313 card offers plenty of ways to get some skin in the game. I'm heading to the prop market this weekend. Below you'll find my best prop bets for UFC 313. 

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

UFC 313 Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Alex Pereira (-118) vs. Magomed Ankalaev (-102)

Saturday's main event comes in the Light Heavyweight division, where Alex Pereira (champion) is set to make his fourth title defense against challenger Magomed Ankalaev (No. 1-ranked challenger). Pereira is a narrow -118 favorite to retain the belt, while Ankalaev comes back at -102 to secure the strap. 

I ultimately believe Pereira will win this fight, but it may take a few rounds to get the challenger out of the octagon. Ankalaev has yet to be knocked out in his 22-fight MMA career (20-1-1, 1 No Contest). The Russian also boasts a 58% strike defense rate, meaning only 42% of his opponents' strikes are landing. 

If it does take time for Pereira to find a finish or if this fight stretches the full 25 minutes, it'll give each fighter plenty of time to accumulate strikes. I believe it will, so I'm playing Ankalaev to clear 56.5 significant strikes landed. He averages 3.64 significant strikes per minute at a 52% clip. Ankalaev amassed 78 strikes against Jan Blachowicz in their title fight back in 2022. He has racked up at least 55 strikes in four out of his last seven fights. 

Bet: Magomed Ankalaev Over 56.5 Significant Strikes (-115)

Justin Gaethje (+130) vs. Rafael Fiziev (-155)

The co-main event features a rematch in the Lightweight division, as Justin Gaethje (No. 3-ranked) looks to improve to 2-0 against Rafael Fiziev (No. 11-ranked). Fiziev, who lost the first fight via majority decision, is favored at -155 to get his revenge, while Gaethje sits at +130 to win the bout. 

Gaethje won a majority decision over Fiziev back in March 2023, out-striking him 103-97 in the 15-minute fight. With the American being such a high-volume striker, I'm taking him to clear this line of 81.5 significant strikes in the rematch. 

Gaethje is landing an elevated 6.78 significant strikes per minute at a solid 59% success rate. Fiziev's opponents land at a rate of 51%, so Gaethje is primed to do some damage. Finally, it's worth noting that each fighter is north of +200 to land 1+ takedowns, so this fight should stay on the feet. That will allow for the necessary time for Gaethje to accumulate the strikes. 

Bet: Justin Gaethje Over 81.5 Significant Strikes (-115) 

Jalin Turner (+110) vs. Ignacio Bahamondes (-130)

Just before the co-main event, we have a Lightweight tilt between Jalin Turner (No. 13-ranked) and Ignacio Bahamondes (unranked). The unranked Bahamondes is a narrow -130 Moneyline favorite, while Turner sits at +110 to get his hand raised. 

I think someone's going to sleep in this one. Both of these Lightweights pack a heavy punch, as they've combined for 21 knockout wins across their 43 professional fights. For Turner, he has a 100% finish rate in wins, registering 10 knockouts and four submissions during his 14-8-0 career. Bahamondes is 16-5-0 with 11 knockouts. 

The biggest metric that stands out to me in this fight is that Jalin Turner's strike defense rate is just 41%, meaning 59% of his opponents' strikes are landing. Bahamondes has the height and reach (75 inches) to get in on the lengthy Turner. Expect to see some heavy exchanges on the feet. I'm taking this fight to end in a knockout. 

Bet: Exact Method of Victory: KO/TKO/DQ (-115)

More UFC 313 Picks & Predictions:

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App