UFC 314 Picks & Predictions: Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett (2025)
The Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida, is hosting the UFC this week for UFC 314. The featherweight title is up for grabs after Ilia Topuria vacated the belt to move up a division to lightweight. Alexander Volkanovski held the belt for over four years and will have a chance to win it back against Diego Lopes, who has won five in a row in route to a title shot. The card also features two ranked featherweight fights between Yair Rodriguez and newcomer Patricio Pitbull, while Bryce Mitchell will fight Jean Silva. The night begins at 6 p.m. EDT, and the main card starts at 10 p.m. EDT on pay-per-view.
UFC 314: Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Michael Chandler (+124)
Chandler is 23-9 overall and 2-4 since joining the UFC in 2021. He spent most of his career in Bellator and went 18-5 from 2010 to 2020. He has struggled against tougher competition in the UFC, losing to Charles Oliveira twice, Dustin Poirier, and Justin Gaethje. His wins came over Tony Ferguson and Dan Hooker.
Michael Chandler lands 4.49 significant strikes and absorbs 4.30 significant strikes per minute. He lands with 50% accuracy and defends 43% of significant strikes. He averages 1.59 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, with 37 accuracy, while defending 63%.
Paddy Pimblett (-148)
Paddy Pimblett is an impressive 22-3 overall and has not lost in the UFC, going 6-0. His latest fight was a first-round submission via triangle choke over King Green. He beat Tony Ferguson and Jared Gordon, both via unanimous decision, before that. He has had three submission victories in the UFC, one by knockout.
Pimblett lands 4.94 significant strikes and absorbs 3.75 significant strikes per minute. He lands with 53% accuracy and defends 40% of significant strikes. He only averages 0.91 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, with 25% accuracy. Pimblett has only defended 52% of takedowns but averages 2.1 submissions attempted per 15 minutes.
Prediction
Paddy "The Baddy" Pimblett became a household name in the UFC in a short time with the promotion. He has fought on pay-per-view cards in his last three fights because he can get people to watch his fights. The one thing he has lacked is quality opponents. Michael Chandler will be his first true test, even though Chandler is 38 now and past his prime. Pimblett earned a shot at a ranked opponent after making quick work of King Green, who is a longtime veteran of the UFC.
Chandler and Pimblett are great entertainers in the promotion, along with Pimblett, so this five-round fight should draw many fans. Pimblett is 30 years old, and in fights with an eight-year age gap, the younger fighter has won 68% of the time. At -148, he has an implied probability of 59.68% of winning this fight, according to oddsmakers. That is because they think he has not been tested at this level yet, but I believe Pimblett is improving, while Chandler has not performed well, albeit against some of the best fighters in the world.
Chandler's strength throughout his career has been his wrestling. The only person to take him down in the UFC is Charles Oliveira, which is not bad. Pimblett may welcome a takedown, however, as it is his best chance to get this fight on the mat to get a submission. Pimblett's striking is not great, but he has solid straight punches, and Chandler's defense is not great. Pimblett's defense is not great, but his chin has held up thus far in his career. Paddy Pimblett can knock down Chandler and could potentially use that to lock in a submission.
Pick: Paddy Pimblett Moneyline (-148)