UFC 314 Picks & Predictions: Yair Rodriguez vs. Patricio Freire (2025)
This weekend's UFC 314 card in Miami, Florida features a ton of intriguing fights, including this Featherweight bout between (#5) Yair Rodriguez and Patricio Pitbull. Let's dive into each fighter's path to Saturday’s tilt, and I'll wrap it up with the odds and my best bet for this tilt at 145 pounds.
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UFC 314: Yair Rodriguez vs. Patricio Pitbull Betting Guide
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Yair Rodriguez (20-6-1, 1 NC)
Yair Rodriguez is set to make the walk for the first time since February 2024, when he was submitted (Arm Triangle) by Brian Ortega in the third round. This marked the 32-year-old's second straight defeat, with the other coming in a championship tilt against Alexander Volkanovski (KO/TKO - Punches). Rodriguez has proven to be an upper-echelon fighter, but he hasn't been able to take the next step and hold onto Featherweight gold. He's now 20-6-0 (1 NC) professionally, with eight knockouts and five submissions.
"El Pantera" is an active striker, averaging 4.65 significant strikes per minute. He's absorbing 3.99 strikes per minute. Stylistically, Rodriguez is a black belt in Taekwondo. As for his wrestling, he's landing only 0.69 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 27% success rate. Rodriguez is fending off 58% of opposing takedown attempts, but he's conceded 18 takedowns in his last six fights.
Betting Profile: Patricio Pitbull (36-7-0)
37-year-old Patricio Freire (Pitbull) is on track to make his UFC debut this weekend, after spending 14 years as a member of the Bellator promotion. The Brazilian has amassed a 36-7-0 professional record, with 12 of those wins coming by knockout. He also has 12 decision wins and 12 submission victories, so it's safe to say he's a balanced brawler. In terms of recent form, Pitbull was recently riding a two-fight losing streak but notched a knockout win over Jeremy Kennedy in his Bellator finale back in March 2024.
Bottom Line
Despite being on a two-fight slide, fifth-ranked Yair Rodriguez is a sizable -198 moneyline favorite to get back into the win column on Saturday night. Debuting Patricio Pitbull comes back at +164 to secure the victory in his first fight with the UFC.
I'm a bit of a Yair Rodriguez truther. I think he's a legit top-five fighter in this division. We've seen him struggle against the Max Holloways and Alexander Volkanovskis of the world in the past, but he typically dusts anyone who's not in that elite category.
I'll gladly back Rodriguez to win this fight, and rather than lay the juice with the moneyline, I'll opt to play the Mexican-born brawler to win by decision at +125. I'll likely have a moneyline parlay or two with Rodriguez simply to win as well because I don't think a knockout victory (+330) is out of the question either.
There are a few reasons as to why I'm looking to fade Pitbull. For starters, he's 37 years old and stepping up to fight a top-tier UFC fighter in his prime. Rodriguez also has a sizable height (5' 11" vs. 5' 6") and reach (71" vs. 65.5") advantages. I think he'll manage to keep his distance and piece up the newcomer over three rounds. Give me Rodriguez to win by points.
Bet: Yair Rodriguez to Win by Decision (+125)