UFC 314 Volkanovski vs. Lopes: Parlay Picks & Predictions (2025)
The Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida, is hosting the UFC this week for UFC 314. The Featherweight title is up for grabs after Ilia Topuria vacated the belt to move up a division to lightweight.
Alexander Volkanovski held the belt for over four years and will have a chance to win it back against Diego Lopes, who has won five in a row en route to a title shot.
The card also features two ranked featherweight fights between Yair Rodriguez and newcomer Patricio “Pitbull” Freire, while Bryce Mitchell will fight Jean Silva. The night begins at 6:00 p.m. ET, and the main card starts at 10:00 p.m. ET on pay-per-view (PPV).
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UFC 314 Volkanovski vs. Lopes: Parlay Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Leg 1: Marco Tulio (-380)
Marco Tulio is fighting Tresean Gore in the early prelims in an exciting middleweight matchup. Tulio is a grappling threat with solid stand-up. He lands 5.02 significant strikes and absorbs 2.68 significant strikes per minute. Tulio lands with 51% accuracy and defends 58% of significant strikes. It is vastly different than Gore's metrics. Gore averages 3.00 significant strikes landed and 5.88 significant strikes absorbed per minute. He only defends 47% of significant strikes and lands with 54% accuracy. Tulio should have success striking and potentially finish this fight via knockout.
Experience could come into play in this fight. Gore has more fights in the UFC, but Tulio has more experience overall, coming from the Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA). Gore was on The Ultimate Fighter season 29, losing in the finals to Bryan Battle. He is talented, but Tulio is better and negates Gore's wrestling with his grappling threat.
Leg 2: Jean Silva (-218)
Jean Silva has won four in a row in the UFC, all by knockout. Bryce Mitchell has lost two of his last five. He lost to Josh Emmett via a vicious knockout and to Ilia Topuria via an arm triangle. Topuria also knocked him down in their fight in 2022, and Mitchell's chin has not been as durable as it once was. He relies on pressure grappling, averaging 3.39 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, with 43% accuracy. Silva can defend them, having defended 80% of takedowns in his career.
Silva is the more polished striker and has much more power. Mitchell thrives against grapplers but struggles against strikers. Mitchell's chin is too questionable right now against a knockout threat like Silva. He has four total knockdowns in the UFC, and the only person he did not get one against was Drew Dober, who is one of the most durable fighters in the lightweight division. Mitchell is not as durable and will succumb to Silva’s power punches.
Leg 3: Diego Lopes (+120)
Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes are fighting for the vacant Featherweight belt. It is a five-round fight, as all championship bouts are, which may favor Volkanovski. Lopes has tired out in one fight, but it was under weird circumstances. His fight with Brian Ortega got cancelled, and Dan Ige fought him on one day’s notice. Lopes did not look good in the third round of his fight against Ige, but dominated Ortega in the third round of the following fight. I would not look into the third round against Ige too much and trust that Lopes is prepared for a five-round fight.
Volkanovski has been knocked out in his last two fights by Islam Makhachev and Ilia Topuria. His chin is questionable at this stage in his career, and his prime may be behind him. Lopes is hungry and motivated for the title, while Volkanovski is nearing retirement. Lopes is a great grappler and submission threat, which should thwart Volkanovski's wrestling attack. He averages 2.8 submissions attempted per 15 minutes and welcomes takedowns because he is dominant on the mat. He can also handle Volkanovski's striking well enough to find a power punch or kick that can wobble Volkanovski. The younger fighters win 65% of the time when there is a six-year age gap. These two are headed in different directions in their career, and it is time for Lopes to reign as Featherweight champion.
Parlay Odds: +305