UFC 315 Odds & Picks: Alexa Grasso vs. Natalia Silva (2025)
The UFC is back at the Bell Centre for the first time in 10 years. UFC 315 will be held in Montreal and will feature two title fights.
Belal Muhammad will defend his Welterweight Title for the first time against Jack Della Maddalena. Valentina Shevchenko will also defend her Women's Flyweight Title for the first time against Manon Fiorot after winning it back from Alexa Grasso.
Jose Aldo will also attempt to climb the bantamweight rankings against Aiemann Zahabi as he goes on one last run for the belt. The early prelims begin at 6:30 p.m. ET and the main card at 10:00 p.m. ET on pay-per-view (PPV). Let’s look at some UFC 315 best bets for Alexa Grasso vs. Natalia Silva.
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UFC 315: Alexa Grasso vs. Natalia Silva
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Alexa Grasso (+200)
Alexa Grasso won the title from Valentina Shevchenko in 2023 and has fought her three consecutive times before losing it in 2024. She won it via rear-naked choke, went to a draw in the second fight and lost via unanimous decision in the trilogy bout. She is 16-4-1 overall and 8-4-1 in the UFC. Three of her losses have come via decision, and one by submission to Tatiana Suarez in 2018.
Grasso lands 4.19 significant strikes and absorbs 3.69 significant strikes per minute. She lands with 41% accuracy and defends 58% of the opponent's significant strikes. She averages 0.44 takedowns landed per 15 minutes with 40% accuracy. Grasso has defended 54% of takedowns in the UFC.
Natalia Silva (-245)
Natalia Silva is 18-5-1 overall and 6-0 in the UFC. She beat Jessica Andrade by unanimous decision in her last fight. She beat both Viviane Araujo and Andrea Lee by unanimous decision before that. Four of her UFC wins have come by unanimous decision, and she has two knockout victories.
Silva lands 5.19 significant strikes and absorbs 2.35 significant strikes per minute. She lands with 47% accuracy and defends 64% of her opponent's significant strikes. Silva averages 0.40 takedowns landed per 15 minutes with 25% accuracy. She has defended 91% of takedowns in the UFC.
Grasso vs. Silva Prediction
Natalia Silva has had a dominant run in the UFC. She is fast and explosive with her striking. She relies on her movement and uses lateral movement to open her kicks. Silva is faster and quicker, and should have openings to land on Grasso. Grasso has traditional Mexican boxing skills and is not afraid to eat a strike to land one of her own. I expect Grasso to implement her wrestling in this matchup, but Silva could use her grappling to mix things up over five rounds.
Silva has not gone five rounds in the UFC, but I do not expect her to tire in the championship rounds. She has shown fantastic cardio in the UFC, so it should not be a problem. She has explosive kicks and can chop Grasso's legs to slow her down. Grasso had big moments in her three fights with Shevchenko and has far more octagon experience, but Silva is an undeniable talent.
Silva's speed will shine in this matchup against Grasso's pressuring style. I expect her to stay at range and land powerful kicks to Grasso's legs and body to slow her down in the early rounds. Grasso is extremely tough and has a lot of grit, so I do not see a finish. I like Silva to win this fight via decision and look for a title shot against the winner of the co-main event.
Bet: Natalia Silva to Win by Decision (-160)