UFC 316 Odds & Picks: Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison (2025)
Two title fights are lined up for Saturday in UFC 316. Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O'Malley will fight again after Dvalishvili dominated their first matchup in 2024. He will put the bantamweight belt on the line in the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey.
Julianna Pena was unable to defend her belt in the rematch with Amanda Nunes but has another chance after winning the strap again by beating Raquel Pennington in October 2024. She will face Kayla Harrison, who has quickly reached a title fight after two fights in the UFC. The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. EDT, while the pay-per-view starts at 10 p.m. Here are our top UFC 316 picks and predictions for Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison.
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UFC 316 Picks: Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Julianna Pena (+525)
Julianna Pena beat Raquel Pennington via split decision at UFC 307 in October 2024. She faced Amanda Nunes in two consecutive fights prior, in 2021 and 2022. Pena won via submission to win the women's bantamweight title in 2021 but lost the rematch via unanimous decision in 2022. She is 13-5 overall and 8-3 in the UFC after winning The Ultimate Fighter in 2013.
Pena lands 3.25 significant strikes and absorbs 2.53 significant strikes per minute. She lands with 44% accuracy and defends 57% of the opponent's significant strikes. She averages 1.81 takedowns landed per 15 minutes with 56% accuracy. Pena has defended 23% of takedowns in the UFC and averages 0.8 submissions attempted per 15 minutes.
Kayla Harrison (-750)
Kayla Harrison has had a quick ascent to a title shot in the UFC. She is 2-0 in the UFC, with wins over Holly Holm and Ketlen Vieira in 2024. She beat Holm via submission at UFC 300 and Vieira via unanimous decision at UFC 307. Harrison is 18-1 overall and 15-1 in the PFL, where she spent 2018 to 2023. Her lone loss came against Larissa Pacheco in 2022 via unanimous decision.
She lands 4.87 significant strikes and absorbs 2.75 significant strikes per minute. Harrison lands with 64% accuracy and defends 64% of the opponent's strikes. She averages 2.75 takedowns landed per 15 minutes with 30% accuracy and has defended 100% of takedowns in the UFC. She averages 0.7 submissions attempted per 15 minutes.
Prediction
Kayla Harrison's latest victory over Ketlen Vieira has aged very well. Vieira dominated Macy Chiasson last week, winning via unanimous decision. Harrison dominated Vieira for three rounds and coasted to a decision victory. Pena is a great matchup for Harrison. Pena is a decent grappler, but she is not on the same level as Harrison. Amanda Nunes showed the pathway to victory over Pena after landing six takedowns over five rounds. Nunes also had three knockdowns in that fight, but it went to the scorecards, which is a testament to Pena's toughness.
Pena is not a great striker, which favors Harrison. Harrison is a solid kickboxer but not an elite one. She uses striking to keep her opponents honest and to engage them in grappling. This fight should not be close, but Pena can never be counted out. You have to dominate for 25 minutes or finish her to put her away. She has shown her toughness and grit, but Harrison is an awful matchup for her.
Pick: Kayla Harrison To Win By Submission (+140)