UFC 316 Odds & Picks: Longshots, Sleepers & Bets (2025)
Two title fights are lined up for Saturday in the UFC. Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O'Malley will fight again after Dvalishvili dominated their first matchup in 2024. He will put the Bantamweight belt on the line in the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey.
Julianna Pena was unable to defend her belt in the rematch with Amanda Nunes, but has another chance after winning the strap again by beating Raquel Pennington in October of 2024. She will face Kayla Harrison, who has quickly reached a title fight after two fights in the UFC. The early prelims begin at 6:00 p.m. ET, while the pay-per-view (PPV) starts at 10:00 p.m. ET.
Let’s look at some UFC 316 longshot bets.
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UFC 316 Picks: Longshots, Props & Bets (2025)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Serghei Spivac (-142) vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+120)
Serghei Spivac and Waldo Cortes-Acosta are matched up on the prelims of this card, and it should be a solid heavyweight matchup. Cortes-Acosta is a former baseball player turned boxer and is now an MMA fighter. He is from the Dominican Republic and played baseball professionally there before sustaining an elbow injury, which forced him to retire. Spivac is a tough matchup for him. Spivac lands 4.56 takedowns per 15 minutes and has good enough striking to compete with Cortes-Acosta.
Submission is an option for Spivac, but I would not count him out on finding a finish via ground and pound. Spivac will get him to the mat and wear him out. Spivac has struggled against the best fighters in the heavyweight division but should fare well against a guy who lacks takedown defense.
Cortes-Acosta has defended 66% of takedowns in the UFC but has shown improvements in that area in recent fights. I do not think he has improved enough to stop the grappling attack of Spivac. Submission is a likely outcome, but Spivac to win by knockout offers lots of value in this matchup.
Bet: Serghei Spivac to Win by Knockout (+550)
Azamat Murzakanov (-625) vs. Brendson Ribeiro (+455)
Azamat Murzakanov is undefeated as a professional (14-0). He is 4-0 in the UFC after earning a contract on Dana White's Contender Series. Murzakanov has three knockout victories in the UFC but won a decision against Dustin Jacoby.
Brendson Ribeiro is 17-7 (with one no contest) as a professional and 2-2 in the UFC. He has gone the distance in two of those fights and could look to grapple against the heavy-handed Murzakanov. Ribeiro averages 1.07 takedowns landed per 15 minutes but has not defended a takedown in the UFC. Murzakanov only averages 0.62 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and has defended 83% of takedowns in the UFC.
Murzakanov is -280 to finish this fight with a knockout, but I would not be surprised if this fight goes the distance. Ribeiro's chin is questionable at this point in his career, but he does have a 10-inch reach advantage, which should help him. I would not go overboard with this prop, but it is certainly a possibility in this matchup against Ribeiro. Ribeiro has nearly double (25) the number of fights as Murzakanov and can use his experience in the cage to his advantage as a massive underdog.
Bet: Azamat Murzakanov to Win by Decision (+600)